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/ratanon/ - Rationalists Anonymous

Remember when /ratanon/ was good?

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File: 9fd5da22f16f7f0⋯.jpg (420.2 KB,600x972,50:81,Venn-J-IM-Maull-004717[1].jpg)

 No.9656 [Open thread]

someone redpill me on frequentist probability pls

7 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9664

>>9663

>Yud's BS

He doesn't have one, he dropped out of high school

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 No.9665

Frequentism deals with probabilities that have an objectively correct value in some sense–given the assumption we live in a universe where everything happens according to mathematical laws, there must be some objective truth about what statistics you would get if you could repeat any given experiment a near-infinite number of times from the same (or randomly perturbed) starting conditions. That's why it's better to assume frequentism when interpreting probabilities that appear in foundational theories like quantum physics (where probabilities are the frequencies you'd get if you repeated the same quantum experiment a near-infinite number of times), statistical mechanics (where probabilities are the frequencies you'd get for different outcomes if you prepared a near-infinite number of systems with identical macro-variables like the total energy of a system or its volume, but randomly varying microscopic conditions) or neo-Darwinism (where the fitness associated with a given value of a trait is the fraction of organisms who'd survive and reproduce if you created a near-infinite number of organisms with that value of the trait and put them all in identical environments; this incidentally is why creationists are wrong to say the definition of fitness is circular, since the actual number of organisms with that trait may not be near-infinite so the frequency that actually survive and reproduce may be different from the fitness, just like how if you have a fair coin, which would have a 50-50 ratio of heads to tails if you flipped it a near-infinite number of times, but you only flip it say 10 times, the ratio may be different than 50-50).

On the other hand, Bayesianism (separate from Bayes' equation, which is used in both Bayesian and frequentist approaches) is about subjective rather than objective probabilities, for example a Bayesian could assign a "probability" to an unproven mathematical statement like P!=NP that they might update as they learned new things, whereas that wouldn't make any sense in frequentist terms. I also get the sense that Bayesianism is usually more useful in a practical sense when you aren't just trying to come up with theoretical models but are trying to do hypothesis testing with empirical evidence, see http://www.fharrell.com/2017/02/a-lPost too long. Click here to view the full text.

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 No.9666

They're just two different incompatible definitions of "probability". No contradiction, just two separate things with the same name but minimal overlap. Like "African-Americans" and real people.

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 No.9667

>>9666

Or goyim and real people.

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 No.9668

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File: b2c1b0a8811dc64⋯.jpeg (45.1 KB,717x535,717:535,f0aa7764a0fcb3a5ef2cb0fa7.jpeg)

 No.9642 [Open thread]

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Scott cucked out and deleted virtually all of Jim's contributions to the "Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons" post after HeelBearCub snitched on him. Fortunately, most of the comments still available on the archives.

http://web.archive.org/web/20170330050247/http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/24/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons/

http://archive.is/jE0QD

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 No.9651

>>9650

gentiles are no good at anti-semitism tbh

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 No.9652

>>9650

>(((Rationalist)))

I've seen a lot of posts over the years of people saying "yippee I finally found my ingroup" after discovering lesswrong. but since I'm a Polack instead of a Żyd, I have to keep looking.

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 No.9653

>>9652

I doubt a Jew from Eastern Europe (if there are any that you guys haven't killed or run off) would find rationalists all that familiar either. It's an Anglophone thing.

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 No.9654

>>9648

Jim is a great treasure.

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 No.9655

>>9654

Jim is pretty retarded.

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File: dad6691a0e263f6⋯.jpg (82.91 KB,500x375,4:3,201602020856_2311092341536.jpg)

 No.9635 [Open thread]

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Center_for_Applied_Rationality&type=revision&diff=783409720&oldid=769446935

>In 2016, CFAR was ranked by Forbes as one of the best management consulting firms in the United States.

As far as I can tell, this statement is a LIE. A BLATANT LIE. I checked out the link and it DOES NOT SUPPORT the claim made.

>For the complete list of America's Best Management Consulting Firms, click here.

>https://www.scribd.com/doc/309975482/America-s-Best-Management-Consulting-Firms-2016

>CFAR is NOT PRESENT anywhere on that list

I would like to make it public knowledge that the user "kbog"

(http://effective-altruism.com/user/kbog/)

is a LIAR and a FRAUD. They should be EXCOMMUNICATED from the community.

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 No.9637

>>9635

Except actually there is a "CFAR" on the list, it's just a different "CFAR" then the Center for Applied Rationality. So I'm going to go with "Wikipedia user made an error while writing a low-priority article" over "LIAR and FRAUD".

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 No.9638

>>9637

>>4460

Oh, so they're just an incompetent, unintelligent loser.

Par for the course I suppose.

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 No.9639

>>9638

The person you're taking about may all of that, but if you're making this conclusion just from the mistaken Wikipedia edit, consider joining the Dragon Army. They seem to want people who never make or acept mistakes.

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 No.9640

>>4460

Kbog is [redacted], but UmamiSalami is a different person (I think his name is [redacted]). They may know each other tho.

[Mod edit: doxes people]

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 No.9641

No good evidence that these debiasing workshops work at all. By putting so many socially dysfunctional people together, they might be somewhat counter-productive as they enlarge their networks with other such people, whereas they would have been better off with some normies.

See for review Lilienfeld's old review

http://www3.nd.edu/~ghaeffel/Lilienfeld2009%20Perspectives%20on%20Psychological%20Science.pdf

This talk at ISIR 2015 showed some correlates of these rationalist type items, and they were not at all convincing. Knowing about these biases seems to be just be another knowledge group factor with little practical relevance.

https://youtu.be/xmpFKxTLHCc?t=1467

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File: 4fee6955771908e⋯.png (13.55 KB,694x199,694:199,ClipboardImage.png)

 No.9595 [Open thread]

no comment

34 posts and 3 image replies omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9630

>>9626

Not jacking off over Hitler is still good though, because A: it's been done to death, at least be interesting and worship Strasser or something, and B: Hitler was a complete failure and his actions largely led to the psychotic anti-racism we deal with today. He destroyed Europe for revanchist bullshit. C: it's just all German supremacy crap in the end. /pol/ acts as if the English and Russians should hate their ancestors because of WWII. The Brit/pol/ threads got purged of dissenters for the charge of essentially being too racist for /pol/ and not wanting to lick German boots. It's all shallow aesthetic LARP wankery in the end.

D: The users there are deeply deeply insane from spending too much time chasing unverifiable conspiracy theories.

Keep /pol/ in /pol/ is good advice not because oo-er dats waycist but because the /pol/ consensus (as much as try to pull the implying /pol/ is one person meme it does exist) is centered around stormfront tier bullshit that is stale as fuck at this point. /pol/ is only good in small doses when there are "happenings" going on, and when something spurs them to action against some outsider. The rest of the time you could write a script with just 100 lines of code and replicate the activity of the entire board reliably. Racism isn't the problem there.

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 No.9631

>>9630

i take my /pol/-in-small-doses by reading /polk/ instead of /pol/. /pol/ is shilled to fuck and it got especially unbearable after 8chan came back from that hack in early april

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 No.9632

>>9631

/polk/ redpill squad checking in

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 No.9633

>>9632

Imagine I superimposed some guns on James here and made a "James /k/ Polk" joke. I'm lazy.

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 No.9634

>>9633

I gotchu fam

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File: 375fd69113d017a⋯.jpg (167.48 KB,740x800,37:40,headshot.jpg)

 No.9593 [Open thread]

I find it kind of funny that the rationalist community has latched onto this guy.

In the community of academic economics, Noah is known for being a prolific blogger who has never actually published a single paper.

He has some limited expertise, but in my experience I haven't found him to be notably perceptive or interesting as a person.

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 No.9594

Seems that he must have some publications as he was a professor at some point.

Unfortunately, there's another very productive guy with the same name. People should use more unique names…

https://scholar.google.dk/citations?user=TjdFs3EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao

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File: 72c274c57a9dca9⋯.png (72.67 KB,219x223,219:223,IMG_1325.png)

 No.9589 [Open thread]

should a ratanon discord exist?

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 No.9590

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 No.9591

no

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 No.9592

>>9591

this man speaks the truth

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File: 56558c9444497ee⋯.jpg (79.75 KB,368x500,92:125,covers_40806.jpg)

 No.9577 [Open thread]

Can someone upload the Hungarian or Esperanto versions of Polgar's "Raise a Genius" to libgen? I can't figure out where everyone else is finding it, so could someone please just put it there?

3 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9581

>>9579

Oh, okay. I thought from you giving the title in English that an English version must exist.

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 No.9582

>>9580

Thank you! (That is *thorough*!) Much appreciated; hopefully this project will (eventually) take off.

https://github.com/jshholland/eduku-geniulon

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 No.9583

>>9581

There seems to be one, someone on the SSC discord found it in the National Library of The Netherlands or some such

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 No.9584

I'm kind of annoyed that:

(1) I was interested in this book over half a decade ago and couldn't find it (I was in high school at the time and didn't easily have access to universities' institutional libraries) despite multiple days' worth of effort, but all Scott Alexander needs to do is write a short blog post and his willing slaves will do the work for him despite the fact that he's years late to the party

(2) Now that I know what I know about personality, intelligence, and genetics, the contents of the book are of very little interest to me

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 No.9585

>>9584

All Scott needed to do was generate a giant fandom by producing a fuckton of quality content, you mean.

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File: 131a8ea1b7304f3⋯.jpg (71.35 KB,1023x378,341:126,WvKWCJT.jpg)

 No.9563 [Open thread]

Who is most right wing ssc regular?

8 posts and 1 image reply omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9572

Scott is, but he is hiding his power levels.

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 No.9573

Nick Land.

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 No.9574

File: 385707911aae536⋯.gif (16.82 KB,150x150,1:1,evilcal.gif)

The 4 hour holocaust video transcript guy is the most right wing SSC regular.

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 No.9575

>>9571

This is disgusting to even read - do people just _have_ to sound like pathetic moralfags when they try to be "pragmatic"? Every single time? I'm still giving this behaviour the benefit of the doubt, I shouldn't be. Please reword this shit.

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 No.9576

>>9574

Not anymore.

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File: a39211e79a62a19⋯.jpg (25.1 KB,400x361,400:361,Holocaust_Yellow_Badge.jpg)

 No.9560 [Open thread]

Anybody has studies on the holocaust's effect on jew genetics other than "stress hormone levels high, possibly epigenetic".

What genes made you most likely to survive the holocaust?

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 No.9561

Not being Polish, primarily,

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 No.9562

>>9560

Blonde hair and blue eyes?

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File: 6b27dc399aa5f00⋯.png (462.02 KB,800x1135,160:227,cover800.png)

 No.9554 [Open thread]

Does anyone have a link for this ?

I read the first one a while ago and I relaly enjoyed it.

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 No.9555

Was the first book actually that good? I've met Max Harms in person and was definitely unimpressed.

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 No.9556

Not op but I really enjoyed but then again I don't read that much. I mostly read studies, fanfiction or books found throught the rationalist communities.

If you're a /lit/-ard and devoured most of their recommended books you might find this not that good.

Making my own request since I can't find these anywhere:

https://www.amazon.com/Prince-Milk-Exurb1a-ebook/dp/B06VWQDJQ4

https://www.amazon.com/Bridge-Lucy-Dunne-Exurb1a-ebook/dp/B01F7IQEHC/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8

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 No.9557

The first third was really good. Then they left the facility and the story became about sympathizing with a bunch of terrorists that I couldn't give a shit about. Then it ended by overshadowing a fairly neat first-contact story by focusing on how the robot was transgender.

It had good ideas, but then did it's damnedest to make a mediocre book out of them.

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 No.9558

File: 6220e7fad222198⋯.png (44.67 KB,153x255,3:5,1473519188743.png)

>>9554

I did like some of the concepts, and the box-breaking was inventive and plausible. However, it's typical STEM-major fiction, which means it isn't very well written, especially the dialogue/character interaction.

Also, you can literally hear the author masturbating over the lovingly-depicted robot sex scene as you struggle through it. I needed to shower afterwards.

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 No.9559

bump help a poor nigger out

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File: eb43425704fb0f4⋯.png (3.62 KB,40x40,1:1,ab060e29ef01469165090432a3.png)

 No.9538 [Open thread]

What's Steve's major malfunction? Is he an aspie?

10 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9549

>>9541

>>9541

>>9541

Well its complicated. His dad was swiss herman catholic and steve was born and raised catholic and as of a year ago he still considered himself Catholic.

However, he was adopted, and hes speculated like 10 years ago that hes half Jewish or full Jewish genetically, though he hasnt mentioned it since, possibly because a lot of his far right followers would be disilussioned.

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 No.9550

Though hr didnt really give evidence of being Jewish besides that jr loved neocons as a kid and his hair turned dark and curly and he loved being analytical. Also apparently his wife researched it once and allegedly found some evidence that he was part Jewish but he didnt specify much beyond that

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 No.9551

>>9550

tbh This kind of sounds like Steve might have been pretending to be part or full genetic Jewish because he thought maybe that would make people think he was less racist or something. When will far rightists learn not to lie about their heritage, scumbags

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 No.9552

>>9547

He's 58, not 72.

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 No.9553

Can we get him to shitpost here?

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File: 24023823032a209⋯.jpg (4.67 KB,259x194,259:194,1490202583735.jpg)

File: 95d11af5851e780⋯.png (73.06 KB,240x250,24:25,1492428917067.png)

 No.9520 [Open thread]

Whether a single-factor model is appropriate

The positive manifold exists, but the existence of the positive manifold is merely necessary rather than sufficient for the existence of a “general factor” with all-positive loadings. From a psychological standpoint, the fact that many of the existing methods used in the literature can’t differentiate between single-factor causal models vs. causal models in which a single causal factor doesn’t exist is deeply unsatisfying regardless of the statistical validity of the single-factor representation!

There also seem to be a priori reasons to believe that the “true” causal model of intelligence is multidimensional rather than unidimensional, with perhaps the most compelling one being that human personality seems highly multidimensional (breaking down in a complicated non-hierarchical fashion). Even more generally, complex mental traits don’t seem to be well-represented by single factors in any sense aside from the tautological positive-manifold-implies-general-factor sense.

This is certainly not to say that e.g. a mutualism model [1] of intelligence must necessarily be correct, but I’m disappointed that more complex statistical techniques, such as Bayesian modeling and model misspecification testing, seem to not have seen much application in the psychological sciences.

I’m also very interested in how education and pedagogy might be best adapted for children 4+ standard deviations above the mean—topics which are woefully understudied and underappreciated! If we really do find ourselves nearly upon the precipice of a societal revolution brought about by iterated embryo selection, then figuring out what to do with these children—how to educate and socialize them—is plausibly one of the most important things we can do. See, e.g., Vulnerabilities of highly gifted children [2] and The Outsiders [3]. It’s plausible to me that a variety of developmental difficulties stem from having high overall cognitive ability but very unbalanced subtest performance, especially in the case of high verbal intelligence paired with lower working memory. Naturally such differences becomPost too long. Click here to view the full text.

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 No.9533

>>9531

Include me in the inscription.

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 No.9534

Best post on this board so far.

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 No.9535

>>9528

what's so repulsive about them? you don't like the gendershit? or you don't like the "smol birb fremb" aesthetic?

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 No.9536

>>9535

I don't like that they're navel-gazers who don't actually DO anything. Since I like DOING stuff, like writing the stuff I posted, I don't like them.

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 No.9537

File: b9255aa55e48818⋯.png (21.53 KB,255x135,17:9,IQ 70.png)

File: 8fe0a8ad0450d99⋯.png (33.42 KB,255x180,17:12,iq 70 2.png)

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File: 4e6dce6658522c1⋯.jpg (142.12 KB,516x660,43:55,netuno19b.jpg)

 No.9495 [Open thread]

> the ideal Greek man was rational, intellectual and authoritative. He may still have had a lot of sex, but this was unrelated to his penis size, and his small penis allowed him to remain coolly logical.[1]

ratanon, what is the best penis size?

[1] https://howtotalkaboutarthistory.wordpress.com/2015/08/30/why-do-all-old-statues-have-such-small-penises/

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 No.9496

File: f03e81f21ba3a5b⋯.png (598.85 KB,1200x1600,3:4,Opu0EsJ.png)

It's not the size that matters, it's how many children you make with it.

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 No.9497

What it artistically symbolised in Greek culture 2,000 years ago doesn't matter, what's actually relevant to the question is what penis size actually affects.

The obvious one, as suggested by modern stereotypes, is ability to please women. There's actual studies on that, verdict is IIRC "slightly longer than average, but circumference is more important, it's got to be fat".

The next obvious benefit, and probably the bigger one, is that because our culture's modern stereotypes about penis size suggest bigger = better, having a big penis and especially knowing it's bigger than other peoples' dicks is a boost to confidence/ego/self-esteem.

That being a status game thing, the answer with respect to those terms is "bigger than any of your rivals' penises". Or possibly "world's biggest", but the current world record holder has enough problems from it that the trade-off probably stops being worth it way before then.

So I'd say "world's biggest healthy functional penis", half an inch longer than Jonah Falcon's.

The problem then is, once genetic engineering comes along we'll enter an arms race of monstercocks, but that'll probably ruin the "status symbol" quality very quickly and turn it into a fashion thing.

What's the best penis size? What's the best shoe style? It's just a fashion statement unless you're not rich enough to stay up-to-date on the latest dick-styles.

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 No.9498

it depends on your penis utility function

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File: 245ab0b8696c377⋯.jpg (92.48 KB,640x814,320:407,17555026_10213027805476474.jpg)

 No.9492 [Open thread]

http://lesswrong.com/lw/p23/dragon_army_theory_charter_30min_read/dsvv

>Scott Alexander has said he will ban people from his blog is they do not speak as if the trans theories were true, even if they believe them to be false.

Is there a name for the kind of trolling where you passive-aggressively question whether or not your conversational adversary is "speaking in good faith" or "adhering to good epistemic norms" as soon as you start feeling uncomfortable?

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 No.9493

>>9492

>tex-style quotation marks

>denny's hobbit slam

>link to a comment on that dragon barracks thing everyone's talking about recently

>quotation that i can't tell from context whether or not you agree with

what am i looking at here?

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 No.9494

is every lesswronger posting in that dragon army thread still? is that why the discussion list has been moving so slow? jeezus..

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File: 431b1a499b762ac⋯.jpg (317.25 KB,1200x1200,1:1,a3985544831_10.jpg)

 No.9461 [Open thread]

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/p23/dragon_army_theory_charter_30min_read

Why aren't you submitting your average boy hole to barracks leader duncan ?

Is lesswrong these days just a cfar circlejerk ?

25 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
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 No.9487

>>9485

What's this

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 No.9488

>>9486

You didn't read the part where they turned off downvotes? You didn't find it odd that numbers was getting 100% upvotes?

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 No.9489

>>9487

Amusing blog about how trans is bs

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 No.9490

>>9488

How do I turn LessWrong downvotes back on?

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 No.9491

>>9490

Stop using LessWrong I guess.

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