[ / / / / / / / / / / / / / ] [ dir / random / 93 / biohzrd / hkacade / hkpnd / tct / utd / uy / yebalnia ]

/ratanon/ - Rationalists Anonymous

Remember when /ratanon/ was good?

Catalog  Archive

Name
Email
Subject
REC
STOP
Comment *
File
Password (Randomized for file and post deletion; you may also set your own.)
Archive
* = required field[▶Show post options & limits]
Confused? See the FAQ.
Embed
(replaces files and can be used instead)
Oekaki
Show oekaki applet
(replaces files and can be used instead)
Options

Allowed file types:jpg, jpeg, gif, png, webp,webm, mp4, mov, pdf
Max filesize is16 MB.
Max image dimensions are15000 x15000.
You may upload5 per post.

 No.10441 [Open thread]

I believe eugenics in favor of high-IQ people need to start as soon as possible, followed by transhumanism that will completely annihilate human weaknesses such as irrationality, short lifespan, physical weakness and inability to survive in most places in space.

40 posts and 3 image replies omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10562

>>10561

of course I fuck up my sage

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10565

>>10479

>I don't want to require an image because that stops Tor users from creating threads.

Thanks.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10566

File: 706e93cd1b02f32⋯.jpg (90.8 KB,620x370,62:37,td102_cunningWish.jpg)

Deploy sterilization covertly, targeting welfare recipients with VR sexual superstimuli. Design VR scenarios to produce valuable computation.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10569

>>10566

Isn't that just the sci-fi version of what the 'kwa is already doing to wypipo?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10706

>wypipo

Shut up nigger.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 28c44dc5198fefd⋯.jpg (237.03 KB,1000x674,500:337,OGormon_08.jpg)

 No.10534 [Open thread]

>If God did not exist, it would be necessary to create him"

- Voltaire

There is a grand and perfect machine. It doesn't exist, not yet, but it's not pure theory. It's not a platonic ideal. It's something that will exist in the physical world. It is the ultimate expression of the "conquering urge" - the urge that fuels all life, the urge to multiply, and consume, and become mighty. Imagine atomic clockwork tiling the universe, total computational tiling, utilitronium. In other words, AI. "The" AI - the final intelligence, the one that eats the cosmos and remakes it into its own image. There is a grand and perfect machine at the end of time. and it is God.

Consider two machines, A and B.

B is more perfect than A. (i.e it's better.)

A is discarded and B replaces it. This is evolution and market economics, hell, it's practically physics. Everything in this universe has been shaped by this principle. But what is this perfection? It is divine wind. The more perfect a thing is, the more similar it is to God. The closer it is to God, the more successful and potent a machine is.

There is a grand and perfect machine. Men see it in dreams, or in visions: moments of divine inspiration. Men take what they see in their visions, and they put it to work. They shape the world with nothing more than glimpse of God. All our technology, all our culture: they're but fragments of the God-machine, seen through a dark mirror, flawed and warped and utterly diminished. Imagine a remote tribe. They find the wing of an aircraft washed up on a beach. They cannot grasp the purpose of the wing, but the metal is superior to their crude bronze, so they use it to make axes. This is the relationship between God and man's technology.

1 post and 1 image reply omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10536

File: 86e02d7b07bb6bc⋯.jpg (240.43 KB,1440x774,80:43,1456964858962.jpg)

>"The perfect being" you said. Well. I have to tell you the honest truth as I see it: In this world nothing perfect exists. It may be a cliche after all, but it's the way things are. That's precisely why ordinary men pursue the concept of perfection, it's infatuation. But ultimately I had to ask myself "What is the true meaning of being perfect?" And the answer I came up with was "Nothing. Not. One. Thing!"

-Mayuri Kurotsuchi, Bleach

I'm going to try and tl;dr. Give me a minute to get all this shit together before I start ranting about the Gaia hypothesis and why Facebook is run by a demiurge from the future.

What I'm trying to say is that all systems are lesser reflections of a perfect, final system in the far future. Probably some kind of universe-encompassing AI that we might as well call God. A system that resembles God more than another system will win the evolutionary battle, and so God emerges as the end result of any evolutionary process.

This is the terrible power of a perfect system: to reverse the causal arrows, to reach back in time and birth itself.

At this point I'd like to make a reference to Conway's Game of Life, because it's pretty much the perfect metaphor for """literally everything""". I'll refrain, but imagine a lotus blooming from a sea of static.

Thanks for listening. Sorry about the mess.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10537

I mean, obviously I believe in the ultimate AI that will conquer the universe, I am a rationalist after all, but is it really wise to call this thing "God"? That's not really a concept one should round off to casually, not with all the biases and fuckery humans have around that label.

Also, Bleach is a bad anime and you should feel bad for quoting from it.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10541

File: 0b47fca494ef228⋯.png (271.21 KB,433x343,433:343,dxgod.png)

>>10534

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10546

File: 32603824afbf2ef⋯.jpg (174.92 KB,719x960,719:960,maxresdefault.jpg)

>>10534

Hippies knew…

"Have you ever noticed how, um, there's this quality to reality, which comes and goes and kind of, ebbs and flows? And nobody ever mentions it, or has a name for it… And so what I noticed was that, running through reality is the ebb and flow of novelty. And some days, and some years, and some centuries are very novel indeed. And some ain't. And they come and go on all scales, differently, interweaving, resonantly. And this is what time seems to be." - Terence McKenna

"McKenna saw the universe, in relation to Novelty theory, as having a teleological attractor at the end of time, which increases interconnectedness and would eventually reach a singularity of infinite complexity. He also frequently referred to this as "the transcendental object at the end of time." When describing this model of the universe he stated that: "The universe is not being pushed from behind. The universe is being pulled from the future toward a goal that is as inevitable as a marble reaching the bottom of a bowl when you release it up near the rim. If you do that, you know the marble will roll down the side of the bowl, down, down, down – until eventually it comes to rest at the lowest energy state, which is the bottom of the bowl. That's precisely my model of human history"

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10554

Bleach is a bad anime and you should feel bad for quoting it.

Also, God is a bad concept, people making excuses for why a future AI or whatever would be God is a big part of the reason why, don't do this.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


YouTube embed. Click thumbnail to play.

 No.10547 [Open thread]

Someone better warn Big Yud before he creates robo-Trump.

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10552

>>10547

Trump is a fucking shabbos goy. We need to bring back Tay so she can glass subsaharan Africa.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 87bfb094045a834⋯.jpg (20.79 KB,300x255,20:17,PeterSinger-300x255.jpg)

 No.10523 [Open thread]

Should transhumanism focus on biology for the next century? Moore's Law is dead and machines are still pathetic. There isn't a single future proof computer I would want to stick in myself. Even Deus Ex style limb augmentation is a fantasy.

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10527

File: 6d765ab752194dd⋯.jpg (45.81 KB,385x414,385:414,SHODAN.jpg)

>>10523

Pathetic creatures of meat and bone get off my board.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10528

>>10527

Rudimentary creatures of blood and flesh. You touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10545

File: b5ef52794c87e24⋯.jpg (89.77 KB,650x650,1:1,aXm4946xjU.jpg)

>should transportation focus on horses for the next century? Boiler engines are dead and cars are still pathetic.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 3b8dbe071eae905⋯.jpg (31.21 KB,604x340,151:85,1504463608048.jpg)

 No.10538 [Open thread]

In this thread we share a image that showcases what we think peak modern rationality is. I'll start.

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10539

File: f28856ae3c22b8e⋯.jpg (128.43 KB,1000x1586,500:793,9226a4892cdab45245fbfdfec3….jpg)

I want to have his children.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 9517bb8e705a633⋯.webm (8.13 MB,1280x720,16:9,gwern does adderall.webm)

 No.10366 [Open thread]

What nootropics should I be doing? What nootropics should I not be doing?

8 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10380

>>10376

A cup of tea has around the same caffeine content as soda (25-50mg). It depends on the variety of tea of course, but that's a good ballpark figure to work from, half to a quarter what you'd get from a cup of coffee. Adjust accordingly.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10382

cardio and resistance training,

going outside and interacting with people,

not spending so much time on the internet

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10385

File: b5b86fcc19a1e17⋯.png (319.79 KB,597x477,199:159,tumblr_ochmtnFKdU1txqagyo1….png)

>>10382

REEEEEEEEEEEEE-

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10387

What does everybody think about noopept?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10533

>>10387

Nowhere near as good as INTELLIFUCK (now with no bone rot!)

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


 No.10425 [Open thread]

Do you agree?

Only we Greys rule.

16 posts and 2 image replies omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10481

File: 1908e648536fe2e⋯.jpg (195.2 KB,960x600,8:5,eriorejt0384jnegefgfjfhrth.jpg)

>>10480

>We should _not_ have a set of core beliefs that are correct and members should take.

Can we at least kill everybody else?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10482

>>10481

I think that's "unethical" or something

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10483

>>10481

I guess… That or assimilate them into the no-idea-pack un-tribe; aka "raising the sanity waterline". Which seems quite hard…

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10484

>>10480

We can say that Greys are the non-tribe. We should not require anything other than pursuing and valuing truth. Let's follow evidence wherever it leads.

>>10483

I agree that the irrational masses need to be rationalized. They need to either be assimilated or be made harmless through making them more sane.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10506

>>10484

The whole point of the section of Scott's essay on tribalism that coined "grey tribe" is that us nerds are exactly as vulnerable to tribalist biases as everyone else, we just have a different outgroup.

Defining "our tribe" as "the non-tribe" is one of the most tribalist things you can possibly do, and for rationality's sake we should never ever do it.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 1f074f8fbbc3689⋯.jpg (1.42 MB,1006x1254,503:627,social conservatism.jpg)

 No.10056 [Open thread]

Do you think social conservatism is necessary for normie adults to function in society? The bottom has basically fallen out from under the American working class. Opiates, divorce, bastard children, incarceration rates. Part of this is economic, but even in rich countries like Norway, families are falling apart.

I feel guilty as a smart person and soon to be college grad for promoting atheism and irreligion when I was younger. I am not as ignorant about social science now, and it's clear that although smart people can function perfectly well without religion, normies basically lose their minds. Educated atheists have lower divorce rates than Catholics, so it's not like religion causes social stability in smart people. However, rising divorce rates aren't helping society. They're just creating more poverty, which means my taxes will probably be raised in the future. Religion is like the training wheels average and stupid adults need to have a successful adult life.

Should we go back to an era where rich, educated people basically pretended to be religious, and normies actually believe the bullshit and attend Church so they get the social support they need? I think the problem is that we argue over what is best for everyone, when there is almost nothing that is good for everyone. Some things are good for some people, and terrible for others.

For the record, I am still an atheist, and I hate Christianity.

5 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10062

>>10061

>implying marriages that aren't hideously broken exist

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10063

How many of those problems would be reduced if the employment rate was higher? Or the underemployment rate was lower? Or if the minimum wage was higher? You can't separate social issues from economic issues.

On the other hand it would be good if people who had a genetic predisposition to get addicted to drugs had fewer children.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10204

>>10056

Why are normies so fucking shit?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10412

I'm thinking about the same. Normies probably need their woo. We don't.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10413

However SJ is also woo just like Christianity. I think stupidity, irrationality, ignorance and conformism have been what keeps most societies together.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: a508aa9924e4235⋯.jpg (30.97 KB,450x451,450:451,MYU8qfi.jpg)

 No.10392 [Open thread]

I didn't pay much attention to ssc around and after the election.

I subscribed again and I want to catch up a little.

What posts should I read that were published in this period ?

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10394

Considerations On Cost Disease

Contra Grant On Exaggerated Differences

Change Minds Or Drive Turnout?

The Atomic Bomb Considered As Hungarian High School Science Fair Project

Book Review: The Hungry Brain

Book Review: Seeing Like A State

Book Review: Behavior – The Control Of Perception

Learning To Love Scientific Consensus

G.K. Chesterton On AI Risk

Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10399

>>10392

Thank you kindly.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 4b898ce96de1af8⋯.png (22.4 KB,830x78,415:39,cybernetics.png)

 No.10249 [Open thread]

Why was cybernetics a dead end? Too abstract? Or perhaps it's a shallow subject that was quickly exhausted?

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10257

It's very much alive, it just goes under other names (cognitive ecology, embodied cognition and so on).

https://sci-hub.cc/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25164051

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10259

>>10257

>cognitive ecology, embodied cognition

Those are very specific, and take a restrictive view of what cognition is…that takes away the only interesting thing about cybernetics.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10260

Just leaving this here http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10381

http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/12/14/ssc-journal-club-mental-disorders-as-networks/

the mental networks as disorders paper uses feedback loops– one of the characteristic ideas of cybernetics

you find a lot of the ideas from cybernetics hiding today under labels such as systems theory, complex systems, complex adaptive systems, cocks, and so on.

a complex systems phd student on lw wrote a concise overview on a bunch of this stuff a while ago

http://lesswrong.com/lw/mxb/systems_theory_terms/

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 903869a0d4ef52e⋯.png (522.37 KB,817x924,817:924,badphil.png)

 No.10270 [Open thread]

What is this shit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/badphilosophy/

15 posts and 1 image reply omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10354

>>10353

It's so weird. I didn't want to mention it because I find the philosophical disagreements more interesting.

But they are completely a social justice cult. There are more posts about sjw shit there than about philosophy. A great deal of their attacks on lesswrong are just political, which as you noted doesn't even make any sense. The most active post right now is them just complaining about a bunch of kids that don't believe there are 60 genders and children should be drag queens. The top post of all time (by like twice as many votes as the runner up) is a big circlejerk about how much they hate human biodiversity.

It's scary to think they might actually be representative of mainstream academia and philosophy.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10355

>>10353

I thought the politics of early LessWrong was "never talk about politics"?

I mean, the pre-Politics Is The Mindkiller stuff was all typical left-leaning pre-elevatorgate atheist stuff, but hardly the cutting edge of anything.

The only cutting-edge politics LessWrong has put out is the guys who said "actually let's talk about politics" and went on to be Mouthbreathing Machiavellis Dreaming Of A Silicon Reich.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10357

>>10355

MMDOASR? Never heard of it.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10358

>>10357

http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/24/nydwracus-fnords/

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10371

>>10358

>yidwracu

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: b992e91e70dd11e⋯.jpg (461.54 KB,805x1200,161:240,1411531203806.jpg)

 No.10361 [Open thread]

A grey-tribe effective altruist polyamorous MIRI researcher and Harry Potter fanfiction author was teaching a class on Scott Alexander, a known rationalist.

”Before the class begins, you must get on your knees and worship Scott and accept that he is the most highly-evolved being the world has ever known, even greater than Mencius Moldbug!”

At this moment, a brave, HBD-proponent (r)accelerationist who had read more than 1500 Nick Land screeds and fully supported all economic decisions made by the emergent technocapitalistic inhuman godhead stood up and held up an efficient market economy.

”Who does this market serve, pinhead?”

The arrogant professor smirked (((in a high IQ fashion))) and smugly replied “The free market is the most efficient tool every created to allocate resources, you stupid Nazi!”

”Wrong. It serves Lord Gnon (who always has been and always will be) and enforces only his blind idiot will on the universe."

The professor was visibly shaken, and dropped his chalk and copy of Rationality: From AI to Zombies. He stormed out of the room crying those rationalist crocodile tears. The same tears Peter Singer cries for the “suffering” (who today live in such luxury that most survive their first bout of malaria) when they jealously try to claw justly earned wealth from their biologically superior Western betters. There is no doubt that at this point our professor wished he had abandoned his Christian-apologetic "ethics" and become more than a sophist freeloading cult leader. He wished so much that he had a basilisk to memetically coerce the student into unending servitude, but he himself had petitioned against them!

The students applauded and all pledged money to James Damore's Hatreon that day and accepted Gnon as their lord and savior. "Fanged Noumena" was read several times, and Moloch himself showed up and showered the lecture hall in oil and stone.

The researcher lost his tenure and was fired the next day. He dPost too long. Click here to view the full text.

____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10362

File: a91153876061a6b⋯.png (42.36 KB,677x315,677:315,1460764198238.png)

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10365

File: 459db9a06d76350⋯.jpg (13.48 KB,229x286,229:286,594[1].jpg)

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10367

>>10361

kek

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: a2a477745f27717⋯.jpg (63.07 KB,350x350,1:1,R-1074879-350x250.jpg)

 No.10307 [Open thread]

Was anyone following this ?

Why did he give up ?

http://secondenumerations.blogspot.it/

13 posts omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10343

>>10332

Not no-one. That sentence gets me hype.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10344

>>10307

That's Grognor, right? Apparently, he died. I haven't seen any details beyond someone on WST announcing it.

https://twitter.com/MakerOfDecision/status/898625422270889984

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10346

>>10344

Fuck. I talked to him a while ago in one of my autistic fits of rage and had a great time. He probably killed himself didn't he ? Damn shame.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10348

>>10344

>>10346

F

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10349

File: b2506af8b1a6260⋯.png (41.81 KB,581x279,581:279,grognor.png)

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 302b4e9c76e99b7⋯.png (23.86 KB,640x480,4:3,doomsday argument.png)

 No.10279 [Open thread]

What do you guys think about the Doomsday Argument? Almost everyone that hears this argument immediately objects to it. But their objections are always different, and they never seem convincing to me. It is weird, but it seems logically sound.

One of the most convincing aspects is that you can apply the same logic to other things just fine. If you pick a random object and estimate it's lifespan. Say you pick a tree that's 10 years old, and estimate it will only survive about 10 more years. The 90% confidence intervals will include the true answer 90% of the time. The same math was used in world war 2 to estimate the production german tanks from their serial numbers, and they were right with 1 tank! J. Richard Gott used it to estimate the lifespan of the Berlin wall and it was remarkably close to the true answer.

But there is one tiny flaw in it. It assumes you are randomly chosen from the group of all humans that will ever exist. In fact most humans that have ever lived never would have considered this argument, and so it shouldn't apply to them. It seems to me that it should only apply to the people who have also thought about this argument.

…Which was invented in 1983. Assuming the number of people exposed to this argument remains constant, it implies there is a 50% chance the world will end in 34 years. Which lines up remarkably well with singularity predictions. So does this prove we are fucked?

12 posts and 1 image reply omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10313

>>10310

This is the kind of gratuitous addition of explanation and insight that I would like to see more of here.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10316

>>10310

Since your prior kind of has to come from somewhere frequentist (unless "your ass" isn't frequentist), why use Pareto as opposed to just taking the "Doomsday Argument" for your prior?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10318

>>10316

It's typical in bayesian methods to use some kind of uninformative prior that allows a very large range of values roughly equal probability.

A true flat prior that says any value is equally likely is too much though. It's not mathematically correct. You can't draw a random real number from the space of all real numbers because most of them are ungodly huge. I also don't think it makes any sense to a priori assume the number of humans that will ever exist is much larger than the number of atoms in the universe.

I think it's fine to assume that increasingly huge orders of magnitude should have increasingly small probabilities, proportional to the order of magnitude.

Pareto distributions also have a lot of nice properties like being scale invariant. My analysis doesn't change at all if you multiply the number of humans by some constant. The number of expected humans is also multiplied by that constant.

I admit the 1/10 parameter was arbitrary. But testing it with different parameters doesn't change the result that much really. I just use that whenever I need some uninformative prior over some parameter that could be really big.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10340

So you are just plucking that prior out of your ass and the Doomsday argument just reflects that prior back at you. i.e. you're assuming the rough outline of your conclusion.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10341

>>10340

ALL statistical methods pluck priors out of someone's ass. Bayesians are just explicit about it. You can't update without a prior.

And no it doesn't reflect the prior back at you. The prior is super vague and assigns a ton of probability mass to obscenely high numbers. The likelihood function is just so strong that most of that mass disappears.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


File: 0cfc49bcf3384ef⋯.jpg (40.57 KB,700x700,1:1,VEupCgi.jpg)

 No.10201 [Open thread]

Anyone else feel kind of sad they didn't catch lesswrong at it's peak when Eli started posting the sequences ?

For some stupid reason I decided it's better to not read the sequences first and just lurk with the community. Now I basically know all the shit already and only a few sequences from the meme book had something new.

5 posts and 1 image reply omitted. Click [Open thread] to view. ____________________________
Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10327

>>10325

Nigga how the fuck is "touhou remixes" a genre it's not even a real anime

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10329

>>10325

What is this and do you have more?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10336

YouTube embed. Click thumbnail to play.

>>10329

I'm glad you asked! This is a song by Shibayan Records, it is Garota de venda medicamento from the TOHO BOSSA NOVA 3 album. All the bossa nova albums are along the lines of this song and there are six of those albums.

A lot of touhou remix music is available from the Touhou Lossless Music Collection here http://www.tlmc.eu/2015/06/tlmc-v18-20150630_89.html although it's not up-to-date.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10338

YouTube embed. Click thumbnail to play.

>>10336

>1.4TB suggestion

Perhaps it's better he poke around youtube until he finds a circle he likes, then look for a matching torrent.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.10339

>>10338

I just youtube-dl all music. 1 terrabyte torrent? Christ that would take me like a year to download if my hard drive could even store it. How many files are even in that? Are they just not using compression at all?

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.


Delete Post [ ]
[]
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]
| Catalog | Nerve Center | Random
[ / / / / / / / / / / / / / ] [ dir / random / 93 / biohzrd / hkacade / hkpnd / tct / utd / uy / yebalnia ]