/qrb/ - QResearch Bunker

Mkt Fag: Muh housing #s are a little 'hot' (price-wise) and inventory increasing and the rollercoaster of nothing when it finished-edition

Housing markets having there blow-off top moment(s) and this can go on for a bit as Wall St loves to not have consequences for actual problems that exist because this here >>136203 in coming later this year news: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO The wheels coming off the housing market is certainly a major issue going forward so that will be those piling up soon and the system ignoring it by driving prices even higher-that (this bigger increase in home prices) is known as a blow-off top and can last a bit until all this inventory catches up and werks on prices in reverse >>136675 Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 20.6% year-over-year in March -but see they have a printing press and those results can be negated for quite some time. >>136758 Framing Lumber Prices Down 50% Year-over-year; Still up Sharply from Pre-pandemic Levels

And right on cue as soon as Europe closed we got the buying programs kicking in "Stocks Pare Loss" EXACTLY at 11:30am est.....They managed to get the DOW green for all of 6 minutes....6 minutes...kek. NAS stayed along the neckline (Fridays close all throughout the mid-session but fell down like all of them in that hour-all shitty low volume-even a last hour attempt starting exactly at 3pm est could 'feex it'. The worst performer of the indices was the RUT at -15.35(-0.81%)

Don't you believe what they are saying in public about rate hikes -it is a TOTAL LIE-the bond market speketh last week and that has NOT changed at all. The CME FED WATCH is just a contract that can be bought and sold to reflect whatever story they want to tell. They will NOT raise rates in September-you must look at the 2 year note to see what they will do and right now they ain't gonna do it. May 2020's collapse in US Macro 'Surprise' data was the worst since Oct 2008 (the immediate aftermath of the Lehman crisis and freezing of all capital markets)-but they were NOT shoving $2T at it then either. The S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000 were basically unchanged on the month, thanks to the ramp of the last few days) but Nasdaq ended the month red (4th red month of last 5 for Nasdaq)

AMZN is up17%in four days-like they din't know the split was coming....:I-well they did just not the announced approval of it. It is scheduled to trade on a split adjusted basis (20:1) on June 6th)-and that was announced on late Friday and it will be priced in the $120ish range-its shareholders had approved an amendment to its restated certificate of incorporation to effect a 20-for-1 stock split. There is no better sign of a top in the markets when they use accounting tricks to make it appear cheaper-it will rise for a bit then will drop-they always do historically speaking-some rare exceptions to it. If you want to take advantage of it make sure you don't hold onto for very long as it will drop. Seen THAT movie plenty of times before.'''

Trading Halts

JE Cleantech Holdings Limited (JCSE) 11.70-3.29 (-21.95%) Limit down and no one appears to be home in it as it has traded only 78,629 on a daily avg of 603,669. Cardio Diagnostics announced it will merge with halted Mana Capital Acquisition Corp. via SPAC and that has triggered T1-3 codes and that means news has been coming, released and then resumed.

IPO'd on Aroil 22 at $19/sh

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

Here is the Short Interest defined as the companies with the largest proportions of outstanding shares currently sold short. https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest

They just did nuffin today...see for yerself.

Top winner/loser Dow, NAS, SP500, NASDAQ 100-focus on NAS because it is by FAR the most bloated of all

Top winner/losers-DOW https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/dow_jones

Top winner/losers-NAS 100 https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/nasdaq_100

Top winner/losers- SP500 https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

Treasury complexStill the signs of 'folding 'em present-not getting anywhere near 3% on the 10 year but as mortgage rates rise (30 year fixed) they gonna have a problem trying to 'splain this-if anyone even asks that is. The 2 year is same and that is what they use to gauge what the FRB gonna do with prime but Kenny already told ya last week. Bonds were mixed in May with most of the curve lower in yield (led by a 16bps compression in 2Y) but the long-end under-performing (30Y +6bps) thanks to today's weakness...

FOREX-US$, Ruble, Yen, Pound, EUROSee Cap#4 Ruble had some strength early on and was up at 0.016495 but backed off to be at 0.015880+0.000255+1.63% 30 minutes before Europe closed. Muh ¥ 128.63+1.07+0.84% devalues further at same time. US $ doing nuffin also at same time 101.77+0.10+0.10% but got to 102.17 shortly after our PM sessions opened up. Ruble close at 0.015936 +0.000311+1.99%

MetalsAu flat -8.90 -0.48%and Ag down about 0.75% early but has rebounded to be at -0.13 -0.59% about 30 minutes before Europe closes. Nice dip buying there but remember all Paper. But as usual the selling came in and it ended up right around -0.41 -1.87% and that will improve the Gold/Silver ratio again $85.289 +0.812 (+0.96%) by almost a full oz. Au just kept going down all day after that initial spike it had with Ag and ended around -14.30 -0.77%

Gold not so much buying the dip as Ag has pretty much erased the quick drop it had and it was driven up on the NYMEX open. So we're gonna test that 'floor' in it at $21.50 again-it actually dropped to $21.43 and was quickly bought so let's see how bad Private Advisors Group wants moar of this at that same price level.

>>>/qresearch/16303803 pb Private Advisors Group sold $1.2B in SLV-Q1 2022-after buying roughly same amount in Q4 2021

Oil/EnergyWTI (and Brent took off on the expected sanctions) but it exempts all the Hungarian Crude so hahahaha-you had to cave to that or risk sending moar $ to them later so naturally you just went ahead and did what I said you were gonna do-imagine that. >>136645 EU leaders agree on a partial Russian oil embargo it's partial and not until end of the year (if they even do that) WTI was up at $119.x but back where it was last night at just under $118 at $117.83+2.76(+2.40%) and that is the change from Fridays close. Backing off throughout the day and couldn't keep in positive for the close..that was +0.25(+0.22%) so all that to BARELY stay positive. Hope you longs have some confidence cause that just told ya something else going on and some bigger fish shorting it imo. Natty gas gave it up moar and ended at $8.20 and down from $8.60 earlier'''

See Cap#5 for Commodity pricing for today in Energy at Metals

2 of 2

>>136778

NYFRB Operations today-the paper game vs 'cash'

Some News from the NYFRB-May 31st 2022

Statement Regarding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Small Value Exercise

The New York Fed undertakes certain small value open market transactions from time to time for the purpose of testing operational readiness to implement existing and potential policy directives from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC authorizes the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) to conduct these exercises to test its operational readiness in the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations and Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations.

In connection with these authorizations, the Desk intends to conduct two small value agency MBS sales operations, which will occur on Tuesday, June 7, 2022 and Wednesday, June 8, 2022, beginning around 2:00 PM ET and ending at 2:30 PM ET. The total current face value of sales across the two operations will not exceed $180 million.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_220531

They are telling you this (MBS purchases) will NEVER stop

They are already authorizing 'small operations' here and they are supposed to start reversing this...hahahahahahaha!!

A total of$2.014Tin overall transactions today just to get to the next day-nuffin to see here-this Repo is for overnight and uses 101 counter-parties (the most seen yet) and decrease of $31B over Friday 8th day over the $2T mark overall and this is to get to Wednesday'''

2014

Reverse Repossee cap #2 $1.978T and $28.42B less than Friday.

'Temporary' lending at a $2t level...they said the same thing about removing the $ from muh Gold standard in 1971..."it's just temporary"

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo

Mortgage backed Securities (MBS)See Cap #3Way up on the submitted side today-as this is the last 'official' day (Pro-Tip: it isn't) before they start to roll these off as they mature. $8.548B submitted vs. $1.521B accepted in two operations-moar submitted today by $4.495B and moar accepted by $190m These settle on July 21st

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs

Securities Lending OperationsSee Cap #4 $40.078B submitted and $35.026B accepted'''

Moar today submitted by $877m and but less accepted that by $2.256B with 30 year Note CUSIP #912810TD0 biggest at $2.858B of that so they got larger with the 30 year note to try and manage mortgage rates but the second biggest amount is the 2 year at$2.797B'They 'use' the 2 year to 'gauge' what the FRB gonna do with Prime rate rises and it is NO mistake they are 'lending' the 2y in just under $33B of them since friday May 20th-so in definitive management mode here-NO RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER and why 'The Gambler' told you they folded last week.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/securities-lending

Central Bank Liquidity Swap Operationsnone reported for today

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/central-bank-liquidity-swap-operations

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y

https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/ngas.php

https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.volume.options.html#optionProductId=458

https://goldprice.com/gold-silver-ratio/

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

@patelpatriot

·

5m

Catherine: "Vertical Grift. Layers Deep. Network of organizations that follow a particular pattern."

Vertical Grift...

The mules are the bottom feeders.

They absolutely have the tech to know who is at the top...

PAT44 US Army G5 departed JBA and did a fly over at NW Alabama Regional Airport and then arrived at Chennault Int'l Airport -Lake Charles, NO for a ground stop of just under 3 hours then back to JBA

This AC was part of the SAM911 'tale of two AC's >>135005 pb with same callsigns and same destinations-except one during the week of May 8th-it's last several flights have been as PAT44

Recent intinerary(s)

On 0523 it departed JBA -flew ne towards Boston and then returned to JBA.

On 0524 it departed JBA had a fly over at Traverse City-Cherry Capital Airport (home of USCG Air Station then went to Minneapolis Int'l for about 2h30min then back to JBA

0525- departed JBA to Burlington, VT for some extended flyover time at Burliington Int'l then back to JBA

0526- JBA to Pierre, SD for about 90 minutes

pb

>>136015, >>136039 PAT44 US Army G5 nw from JBA-the last time this was PAT44 it went to Stansted, London and at the same time as the SAM911 stuffs see here JBA-Pierre 90min gs-JBA

>>136605, >>136624 pb

German AF 689 GLEX departed Dulles Int'l sw and did a fly-over at New Orleans Int'l then to Roswell Int'l Air center for 90 minutes and then arrived at Boston-Logan Int'l

>>136692

>>136694

#925

notables, not endorsements

>>136697 The jury in the Michael Sussmann criminal case resumes deliberations today after the long Memorial Day weekend.......but then

>>136699 @realLizUSA-Maricopa County accepted AT LEAST 20,000 mail-in ballots AFTER Election Day 2020

>>136703 @wqnderwqman-John Durham has arrived.

>>136706 Russian gas embargo not on the table – Austria

>>136707 Hungarian AF HUAF231 A319 went to Brussels from Budapest depart-Viktor Orbán defeats the EU — again

>>136708 Turkey issues strong warning to Germany and France

>>136709 German AF GAF813 A319 Olaf Scholz on this AC departed Brussels back to Berlin-Germany to end Russian oil imports by end of 2022, Scholz says

>>136710 Turkey outlines stance on sanctions against Russia

>>136711, >>136757 Polish AF PLF101 737Polish President Duda on this ACdeparted Cairo Int'l after an overnight and back to Warsaw

>>136712 Taiwan addresses defense ties with US

>>136713, >>136715 Ruble-yuan trade soars over 1,000%

>>136714, >>136716 Japan won’t quit Russian LNG project even if told to – minister

>>136718 German Police Raid Deutsche Bank, DWS Over Allegations Of Greenwashing

>>136719 @wqnderwqman-Both parties have re-entered the courtroom.

>>136720 Swedish AF SVF642PM Magdalena Andersson on this AC looks like it's heading to Brussels to deliver some 'news'

>>136722 Italian AF IAM9002 A319 Mario Draghi on this AC returning to Rome from Brussels Int'l departure-PM Draghi attends special meeting of the European Council

>>136723 SAM173 USAF G5 nw from JBA-RCAF CFC3040 on descent for Peterson AFB from Chatanooga Int'l, TN departure

>>136724, >>136725, >>136733, >>136734 The "jury" rules Sussmann not guilty...after a whopping 7 hours of deliberations

>>136727 Credit Suisse Sets Up New Financing Group to Boost Risk Control

>>136735 @wqnderwqman-Durham statement on Sussmann verdict

>>136737 @techno_fog-Democrat lawyer Michael Sussmann has been acquitted...The DC jury protects its own.

>>136741 Consumer confidence takes inflation hit-FRB Chair Jerry 'meets' with Potato today

>>136742 @realLizUSA-“I again call on you to rescind the Prize you awarded based on blatantly fake, derogatory and defamatory news

>>136750 French AF CTM0005 Falcon 900French FM Catherine Colonna on this AC departed Warsaw for Paris-Polish, French FMs to discuss have discussed FIFY Ukraine aid in Warsaw

>>136752, >>136753 Yuma County School Board member to plead guilty to ballot trafficking in the 2020 election

>>136754 LIVE: True the Vote Presents Ballot Harvesting Evidence to the Arizona State Senate

>>136755 Mike Lindell announces new film exposing voting machine corruption: ‘Selection Code’

>>136756 Five major cities in Wisconsin hit with voter fraud lawsuits

>>136758 Commodity news: Framing Lumber Prices Down 50% Year-over-year; Still up Sharply from Pre-pandemic Levels

>>136761, >>136764 Live shot of Sussmann Jury leaving

>>136766 Australian AF ASY590 C-17 Globemaster to Rzesow inbound from Prestwick depart Dover AFB depart yesterday

>>136767 'We WUZ KANGS!!!-Nigerian AF NGR001President of Nigeria on this AC and heading NW to Madrid for meeting w Spanish President and Jens Stoltenberg there too

>>136771, >>136773 Pelosi's Husband will make $50m on Uber call options but couldn't spend $30 on an actual ride....

>>136772 SAM233 USAF C-40B State Dept AC heading to Madrid along with NGR001 737 from Abuja-KANGZ!! as there is a celebration going on in Madrid to mark Spain's 40 years as a NATO member-Hungarians back to Budapest from Brussels

>>136778, >>136779 Mkt Fag: Muh housing #s are a little 'hot' (price-wise) and inventory increasing and the roller-coaster of nothing when it finished-edition + another $2T in NYFRB Ops today plus they are still gonna be buying MBS they just told you they will never stop no matter the $ amounts "small value open market transactions"

>>136783 BBee: Pelosi's eyebrows actually move after hubby arrested

>>136784 @patelpatriot-Catherine: "Vertical Grift. Layers Deep. Network of organizations that follow a particular pattern."

>>136786 PAT44 US Army G5 departed JBA and did a fly over at NW Alabama Regional Airport and then arrived at Chennault Int'l Airport -Lake Charles, NO for a ground stop of just under 3 hours then back to JBA-involved in the SAM911 stuffs from week of May 8th

@wqnderwqman

·

3m

BREAKING 🚨 After True the Vote presented ballot trafficking evidence to the Arizona Senate tonight, the response was: "After seeing this, I think we need to move forward with that 2289."

HB 2289 is a bill that states all voting must "occur only on election day and all ballots be cast in person by a voter at the voter's election precinct polling place."

Ballots must also be tabulated by hand within 24 hours of the polls closing.

ARMY663 Super King Air MC-12W Liberty out of Hagerstown, PA (and this is pretty close to Raven Rock Complex-just to the en of Hagerstown by about 15 miles-red dot and Cap#3)

This AC has taken a few quick trips to the east and back to Hagerstown this one is running a square ISR pattern over Lakehurst Naval Weapons Center at about 15.5k feet today'

The MC-12W is not just an aircraft, but a complete collection, processing, analysis and dissemination system. The aircraft are military versions of the Hawker Beechcraft Super King Air 350ER. A fully operational system consists of a modified aircraft with mission system suit, electro-optical infrared sensors, line-of-sight and satellite communications datalinks, along with a robust voice communications suite.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104497/mc-12w-liberty/

Could be something or a training flight-it is Tuesday-and it is circling the Lakehurst facility where a ton of spoopy shit goes on-saw a Q-400 do this day after day out of Martinsburg, VA in 2019/20'

This is the 'little brother' to the packed to the gills with ISR equipment RC-12X Guardrail (flying Antenna Farm)-see those over Lithuania quite often as YANNK01 and YANK02

and less than 14 hours after saying they wouldn't do this......they do it

Biden agrees to provide Ukraine with longer range missiles

Ranges up to 80 km offered after Kyiv pledges not to strike Russia itself-"Trust US'''

U.S. President Joe Biden has agreed to provide Ukraine with advanced rocket systems that can strike with precision at long-range Russian targets as part of a $700 million weapons package expected to be unveiled on Wednesday. The United States is providing Ukraine with high mobility artillery rocket systems that can accurately hit targets as far away as 80 km (50 miles) after Ukraine gave "assurances" they will not use the missiles to strike inside Russia, senior administration officials said. In a New York Times op-ed published Tuesday, Biden said Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end through diplomacy but the United States must provide significant weapons and ammunition to give Ukraine the highest leverage at the negotiating table. "That's why I've decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine," Biden wrote.

The package also includes ammunition, counter fire radars, a number of air surveillance radars, additional Javelin anti-tank missiles, as well as anti-armor weapons, officials said. Ukrainian officials have been asking allies for longer-range missile systems that can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of miles away, in the hopes of turning the tide in the three-month-long war. Biden on Tuesday told reporters that "we're not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that strike into Russia."

He did not rule out providing any specific weapons system, but instead appeared to be placing conditions on how they could be used. Biden wants to help Ukraine defend itself but has been opposed to providing weapons that Ukraine could use to attack Russia. Thousands of people have been killed in Ukraine and millions more displaced since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, which Moscow calls a "special military operation" to "denazify" its neighbor. Ukraine and its Western allies call this a baseless pretext for a war to seize territory. The West has been increasingly willing to give Ukraine longer-range weaponry, including M777 howitzers, as its force battle Russians with more success than intelligence officials had predicted.

But U.S. intelligence has also warned about growing risks, particularly given a mismatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent ambitions and the performance of his military. Ukraine has started receiving Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and self-propelled howitzers from the United States, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Saturday.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Biden-agrees-to-provide-Ukraine-with-longer-range-missiles

The wearing out of that RONIN42 flight from 0524

The RONIN flights are numerous and have seen them in the SW corner of AZ too.

According to ADS-B it never appeared to have landed and it had a flight the the day before see cap#1

However there is some missing time-see below

Cap #1 is day before-it doesn't appear to have landed at Texarkana either even though it has dark green timestamp-that just means the signal was lost and then reacquired

So the next day we have the same exact situation-however it does have some missing time as the first go around shows a definite NOT landing and the timestamps are consistent with a low altitude (lime green dots) pass

But where it gets interdasting is that there is about 1h23minutes where it 'picks up' a trace at 17:48:43 (red underline) and that is what is the issue is here -so what did it do from the fuscia underline at 16:25:06 and it's reappearance at the red underline at 17:48:43

This doesn't really clear it up but there is some missing time and it does not show it landed but it dis 'something for 1 hour, 23 minutes and 37 seconds what that was it still unanswered

>>136797

This doesn't provide the answer that everyone seems to want but it does highlight the missing time

Something that has been missing from...ahem next door

>>136803

on a 4 day, 11 minute and 14.5 second delta!

let them see it after you grill it

fuq 'em

>>136794

ARMY663 Super King Air MC-12W Liberty done over Lakehurst Naval Weapons Center and west

Nice little Q dhere

FEVER02 USAF C-17 Globemaster was doing roundys at Dover AFB after being off-shore and now departing to the SW-picrel

>>136809

he not leaving yet needs MOAR COWBELL!!

looks like he is going back to Dover after that initial climb

>just having some fun

@Johnheretohelp

May 30, 2022, 08:50

Sussman didn't really turn on Hillary or anyone else. It may look like it now but they have a plan. They can lay it at the feet of "play both sides, greatest legal mind🙄 in history, Rod Rosenstein ".

Once he's front and center it will all come out. You won't believe who was working with him behind the scenes. (Check the header)🙏🙏🐷🐷

https://truthsocial.com/@Johnheretohelp/posts/108391684489839714

@ThePositivePatriot

May 31, 2022, 11:57

Here’s the deal.

If Sussman was convicted of lying to FBI as a civilian, it would exonerate HRC and the FBI.

They are letting Sussman walk to indict the entire organization, INCLUDING SUSSMAN on RICO charges.

Have to charge him with something small to get the evidence admitted and verified by witnesses in court. (Like they did to Flynn.) Deals are being made behind closed doors, Sussman will be given a light sentence in the big case.

(1/3)

He DIDN’T LIE to the FBI… the FBI was complicit in the whole staged op. That’s why he was able to bill HRC for talking to them. If he wasn’t paid, then it’s HIS ass on the line and he IS guilty of defrauding the FBI. These are bad actors and the ones who tried to set up the FBI will hang for sedition.

(2/3)

Barr just announced the other day that the case reveals HRC is guilty of SEDITION. Do you know how serious this is? If they slap Sussman on the wrist for lying to the FBI, THE WHOLE THING BLOWS UP and HRC has plausible deniability. “How was I supposed to know he was gonna lie? I was paying my lawyer to represent me.”

USE YOUR BRAIN.

(3/3)

https://truthsocial.com/@ThePositivePatriot/posts/108398080724833568

>>136812

Bang up job by Mr. 'Great' Legal Mind in 2013 as US Attorney for Maryland United States of America vs. Igor Danchenko

>>136813

not wrong

kek

Kek it's everywhere.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10871515/Former-AG-Bill-Barr-believes-John-Durham-uncovered-seditious-actions-against-Trump.html

>>136817

Not something you see every day for sure-some Chinese Military brass on descent for Beijing Int'l Airport

Chinese AF OMA4069 CL-600-2C10 Challenger 870 and looks like it headed north yesterday from same

>>136817

>>136818

QT2 "Officially" Begins: What Happens Next?

For the second time in the past decade, the Fed will try (and fail) to shrink its balance sheet to some "reasonable" size, a process known as Quantitative Tightening 2. What this means in theory is that, as shown below, the Fed's balance sheet will shrink by $95BN or so every month for the foreseeable futures as existing TSYs ($60BN/month) and MBS ($35BN/month) matures. What it means in practice, is that we will get a brief period of BS shrinkage for a few months before the "next big crisis" emerges and the Fed blows up the balance sheet again. We know this will happen with 100% certainty and without a trace of doubt, if for no other reason than the green agenda of the anti-climate change crusaders, the one event that western politicians have been salivating over for decades, will cost $150 trillion over the next 50 years, of which roughly $2 trillion will come in the form of global QE every year.

But while everyone knows what happens in the medium-to-long term, traders are more focused on how to trade the next few weeks.

For one answer we go to the latest note from JPMorgan flow trader Andrew Tyler who writes that "the question the market needs answered is whether growth is stabilizing after a move lower or if there is more decay to come.... I think it is premature to call the bottom in stocks, which appears to be a consensus view, given QT is about to launch and we are going to get another 100bps in rate hikes over the next 8 weeks." We wonder if his permabullish "buy the dip, any dip" co-worker Marco Kolanovic has read this... we doubt it.

This is fuggen HILARIOUS!!!!

Tyler then pivots to JPM's preview of QT2, as follows: QT2 kicks off tomorrow

Today, on the Rates Sales podcast, they hosted JPM Economist Peter McCrory, who discuss the impact of QT on markets. Podcast is here.

*The TL; DR version is that QT2 could act as a 25bps rate hike in 2022.

*Mike Feroli had published a note, A Roadmap for QT2 (full note available to pro subscribers). The note contains information on the mechanics, impact on financial conditions, the long pathway to normalization, and some thoughts on bank deposits.

*As noted above, by the end of 2023, the Fed is set to shed over $1T in longer-duration assets (in theory), with JPM speculating that "the reduction in bank reserves should have little effect on lending or deposit growth"(it's very wrong).

And here it gets really funny: JPM calculates that "to get back to a “normal” size balance sheet, QT2 may last until 2026 or 2027." Uh, we have some bad news: by 2027, the US will have been in at least one depression, and we will be lucky if the Fed's balance sheet is only twice as large as it is now (and the price of cryptos will be about 10-100x higher than it is now).

QT2 aside, there is still the question of the Fed's rate hikes, at least until the Fed pulls a 180 some time around the August Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed "pauses" in September. According to JPM, here's what to look for: the market continues to price according to Fed guidance (50bps hikes in June and July; 50% of maximum QT pace). Currently, the market has a ~50% probability of a 25bps hike in Sept and 50% probability of a 50bps hike. The market then prices in 25bps in both November and December. This week, keep an eye on whether Waller’s narrative is echoed by other speakers; or, if the Bostic mention of a September pause remains. If we see the Fed pivot and/or turn dovish, then this would benefit stocks. Finally, going back to square one, the question is how does all of this impact the market in the coming days and weeks? According to Andrew Tyler, "the question is one of whether the US bounce is a bear market rally or the continuation of the longer-term bull trend. It is tough to say that we have seen the bottom in stocks given that we have seen a bottom when we still have potential for the Fed to increase its hawkish behavior due to the uncertainty surrounding the next few inflation prints. That said, if an investor wants to short this market, there are challenges given the relatively light positioning among hedge funds and the potential for vol-targeting funds to re-gross and for CTAs to reverse from short to long. Tactically, I think you ride the momentum higher which should be led by Tech and Energy; but, Energy is an idiosyncratic long play given the supply/demand dynamic and supercycle hypothesis."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qt2-officially-begins-what-happens-next

I guess you all missed this GEM from the NYFRB earlier today too

>>136779

Statement Regarding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Small Value Exercise

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_220531

Never....going...to ...stop

>>136822

On that note imma leaving as I can't stop laughing at the 'expurt' from the Morgue

They Pay you how much for this shit bro???

Priceless!!

night all