/qrb/ - QResearch Bunker

>>138845

SAM330 USAF G5 heading to Scott AFB, IL from JBA depart

This a top 3 AC for the 99th Airlift Squad

ty!

>for g1 to be deflated by market

convinced they will 'feex' that

back later

The Fed May Discusswill make FIFY it's Biggest Interest Rate Increase Since 1994

The Federal Reserve is likely to discuss will make its biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when policymakers meet this week, as a range of new data suggest that inflation is coming in hotter and proving more stubborn than they had hoped.

The central bank will probably contemplate whether to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, when they are set to release both their decision and a fresh set of economic projections. The Fed raised rates by half a percentage point in May and officials had suggested for months that a similar increase would be warranted at their meetings in June and July if data evolved as expected. But inflation data has not come in as anticipated. Instead, a report last week showed that inflation re-accelerated in May and is running at the fastest pace since 1981. Two separate measures of inflation expectations, one out last week and one released Monday, showed that consumers are beginning to anticipate notably faster price increases.

That is sure to increase the sense of unease at the Fed, which is trying to quash high inflation before it changes behavior and becomes a more permanent feature of the economic backdrop. And the string of glum news has caused economists and investors alike to bet that the central bank will begin to raise interest rates at a more rapid clip to signal that it recognizes the problem and is making fighting inflation a priority. “They’ve made it pretty clear that they want to prioritize price stability,” said Pooja Sriram, U.S. economist at Barclays. “If that is their plan, a more aggressive policy stance is what they need to be doing.”

Wall Street is bracing for interest rates to rise more than investors had anticipated just days ago, a reality that is sending stocks plummeting and is causing other markets to bleed. Investors now expect rates to climb to a range of 2.5 to 2.75 percent as of the Fed’s September gathering, suggesting central bankers would need to make one three-quarter-point move over the course of its next three meetings. The Fed hasn’t made such a large move since the early 1990s, and that 2.75 percent upper limit would be the highest the federal funds rate has been since the global financial crisis in 2008. When the Fed lifts its policy interest rate, it filters through the economy to make borrowing of all kinds — including mortgage debt and business loans — more expensive. That slows down the housing market, keeps consumers from spending so much and cools off corporate expansions, weakening the labor market and broader economy.hello this was already habbening before this was even being considered...it's just you "academics" are paid to NOT see itSlower demand can help price pressures to ease as fewer buyers compete for goods and services. But interest rates are a blunt tool, so it is difficult to slow the economy with precision. Likewise, it is tough to predict how much conditions need to cool to bring inflation down convincingly. Supply issues tied to the pandemic could ease, allowing for a deceleration. But the war in Ukraine and China’s newly reimposed lockdowns meant to contain the coronavirus could keep prices elevated. Muh insane in the Ukraine and China excuse(s)

That is why investors and households increasingly fear that the central bank will set off a recession. Consumer confidence is plummeting, and a bond-market signal that traders monitor closely suggests that a downturn may be coming. '''The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, a benchmark for borrowing costs, briefly rose above the 10-year yield on Mondaythat 's what was shown last night...thanks! >>138725That so-called inverted yield curve, when it costs more to borrow for shorter periods than longer periods, typically does not happen in a healthy economy and is often taken as a sign of an impending downturn.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/business/fed-interest-rate-increase.html

Now look at the CME FedWatchfor a 75bp increase: D-O-N-E with 91.8% probability for it

50bp is at 8.7%

No discussion needed it was done basically last night

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>>138858

>The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, a benchmark for borrowing costs, briefly rose above the 10-year yield on Monday

>>138841

30-Year Mortgage Rates Increase to 6.13%

Bonds are in the midst of a full-blown capitulation move with 10yr yields currently up over 16bps at 3.32%. MBS are down roughly a full point. These aren't the biggest losses we've ever seen in a day, but they're extraordinarily big losses to be experiencing at the top of trend that has already covered as much ground as the one seen so far in 2022.

...

Long story short, the market is freaked out about what Friday means for the policy outlook. Wednesday continues to be one of the biggest flashpoints for bond volatility we've seen in a long time. Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) over the last year.

The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 6.13% today, up from 5.55% last Thursday.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/30-year-mortgage-rates-increase-to-613.html

and wayyyyy back, so long ago,last Tuesdaythey were: >>138257 Mortgage rates jump, reaching 5.23%

JPMorgan, Goldman Halt Russian Debt Trading After US Tightens Ban

Two giant Wall Street banks are withdrawing from handling trades of Russian debt after the Biden administration’s surprise announcement last week it’s banning US investors from scooping up such assets.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were still matching sellers who wanted out of the debts with interested buyers this month, according to market professionals. Now, JPMorgan is pulling back after the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said investors in the U.S. aren’t allowed to acquire them, a person with knowledge of the decision said. A spokesperson for Goldman said it’s halting such transactions, too. “Consistent with the updated OFAC guidance and Goldman Sachs’ wind-down of activities in relation to Russia, the firm will no longer be conducting certain client-related market making activities regarding Russian entities,” the bank said in the statement. The Treasury Department’s announcement late June 6, stepping up financial sanctions, caught market participants off guard and set off a flurry of talks with lawyers. Earlier policies from the US had allowed trading shops including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to help clients pounce on cheap Russian debt in the secondary market as many holders rushed to unload the assets. Now, US market participants are prohibited from purchasing both new and existing debt and equity securities issued by a Russian Federation entity. Banks routinely scoop up debt because clients asked them to, or because they expect to find ready buyers. When Goldman and JPMorgan’s activity in the market came to light earlier this year, they said they were helping clients reduce exposure. The updated guidance means US investors can still sell or hold Russian debt, but they can’t acquire more, a spokesperson for OFAC said last week.

The Ukraine invasion initially sent prices of Russia-linked bonds tumbling, even if they weren’t subject to international sanctions. The continued trading of such securities soon became a contentious topic, both on Wall Street and in Washington, where Senator Elizabeth Warren accused banks of undermining sanctions. Warren and Representative Katie Porter, a fellow Democrat, urged JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs last month to hand over names of clients trading such securities -- a demand that threatened to widen the spotlight from banks to the broader universe of hedge funds and other investors who jumped in to turn a quick profit.

Even in the distressed-debt market, where sudden price slumps draw vulture investors seeking to ride a rebound, the wagers on Russia-linked debt had stoked a considerable behind-the-scenes debate among industry professionals. Banks also reaped profits from pitching a popular trade in the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine -- the so-called basis trade where investors buy both the bonds and credit default swaps.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jpmorgan-goldman-halt-russian-debt-trading-after-us-tightens-ban-1.1778346

Jamie's ass-ton of CDS' must be really doing well..../s

>>138866

"just can't get it in"

>>138858

Goldman Joins 75bps Rate Hike Bandwagon, Warns It Will Trigger Recession

First JPM, and now Goldman has fallen in line and following the unexpected reversal from WSJ Fed-whisperer, Nick Timiraos, the vampire squid not only also expects the Fed to hike 75bps on Wednesday, but warns that by doing so the Fed "risks" sparking a recession, which of course is not a risk but is precisely what the Fed is aiming at at this point because as we explained yesterday, the deterioration in the labor force absent a recession would be too slow to resolve the inflation problem in the near term.

Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who hardly enjoys being upstaged by a Millennial Hilsenrath-wannabe reporter, first throws shade at Timiraos, saying that his report from earlier today, which we profiled previously, and according to which Fed officials are likely “to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest rate increase at their meeting this week” is a "departure" from another article that Timiraos published just yesterday that characterized such a move as “unlikely.”

not a surprise bro...you should have looked in here last night

As such, Goldman's best guess is "that the article is a hint from the Fed leadership that a 75bp rate hike is coming at the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday." In other words, this is just the latest confirmation of what everyone long suspected, that the WSJ is the Fed's media conduit, just as Citadel is its markets conduit. It also confirms that the Fed really has no idea what it is doing, and is literally making up policy from one day to the next. In any case, now that all this new Fed information has come to light, and which was likely prompted by "the upside surprise in the May CPI report and the further rise last Friday in the Michigan consumer survey’s measures of long-term inflation expectations that has likely been driven in large part by further increases in gas prices", Goldman has joined JPM in immediately revising its forecast to include 75bp hikes in June and July. This would quickly reset the level of the funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral rate. Goldman then expects a 50bp hike in September and 25bp hikes in November and December, for an unchanged terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%. This is less relevant as by then the US will be in a deep recession.

Separately, Goldman is also revising its forecast of the dot plot, and now expects the median dot to show 3.25-3.5% at end-2022, and also expects the median dot to show two further hikes in 2023 to 3.75-4%, followed by one cut in 2024 to 3.5-3.75%. Again, what happens in 2024 and 2023 is irrelevant.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-joins-75bps-rate-hike-bandwagon-warns-will-trigger-recession

>>138832

German AF GAF901 A-340 heading to Singapore from Berlin

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on two-day visit to Singapore

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/german-president-on-two-day-visit-to-singapore

@patelpatriot

·

9m

🔥 This is big 🔥

Trump brought up the machines referencing the exact report used in his Draft EO from Dec. 16th ... the one that discusses foreign interference. Foreign interference is a pretty major aspect to Devolution.

Check out this power hour from last week. @realpgunnels @RichardTheSaint and I went over this in detail.

https://rumble.com/v17c5bh-devolution-power-hour-episode-62.html

>>138870

@patelpatriot

·

9m

🔥 This is big 🔥

Trump brought up the machines referencing the exact report used in his Draft EO from Dec. 16th ... the one that discusses foreign interference. Foreign interference is a pretty major aspect to Devolution.

Check out this power hour from last week. @realpgunnels @RichardTheSaint and I went over this in detail.

https://rumble.com/v17c5bh-devolution-power-hour-episode-62.html

12 PAGES OF 45

https://cdn.nucleusfiles.com/e7/e746fae9-7a5f-462d-a0dd-dd9a11895451/statement-by-president-donald-j.-trump.pdf

QR support live now

EndGameWW3 🇺🇸

@EndGameWW3

Japan doing a elephant walk with their ships…

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1536497915438501889

Gaffe or message? Kuroda remark on prices hints at BOJ's plans-they have none and are stuck

It all began with a June 6 speech at a Kyodo News-organized event where he said that "Japanese households' tolerance of price rises has been increasing."

Mkt Fag "You seemed to have missed that that he also came here (to the US) a few weeks ago begging Janet for an intervention but I guess that doesn't matter....pleas continue.

Godzilla""That's right nikkas he went to Columbia University to give a speech but he made a stop off at Janet's house crying like a pussy and they can just sit tight as our interest rates rise and that makes the Yen-carry trade via the Reverser Repo moar attractive for you nikkas." Mkt Fag " You mean the money printers at teh NYFRB...". Godzilla:" oh yeah right I forgot that casue if you try that on the retail level you'll be starting off at about minus 10-15% before you even pull off a trade when you factor taxes and all the fuggen fee's,"

Mkt Fag" Yes I am well aware of that Godzilla I looked into that a number of years ago and unless you can just carry out (physically) a ton of cash that is about where you start."

Japan's Inflation Dynamics and the Role of Monetary PolicySpeech at Columbia University in New York

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2022/ko220423a.htm/

Kuroda turned to a survey by University of Tokyo economics professor Tsutomu Watanabe to illustrate his point. When asked how they would respond to a 10% price hike at the supermarket they frequent, more Japanese households said they would "accept the price increase and continue to buy the same amount at the same supermarket" than in a previous survey, Kuroda said. Japan's consumer price index rose more than 2% on the year in April, meeting the BOJ's target for the first time in more than seven years. Supply-side constraints due to the recent lockdowns in China pose risks for a Japanese economy that has struggled to fully bounce back from the coronavirus. "The top priority for the bank is to persistently continue with the current aggressive monetary easing," Kuroda said, reiterating the BOJ's official position that a debate on scaling back would still be premature. Such speeches are carefully drafted ahead of time by the BOJ's Monetary Affairs Department, which is responsible for crafting the bank's policies. The June 6 remarks were no different. The term "tolerance," despite triggering backlash this time around, had also been used by the BOJ on multiple occasions before. Kuroda did not need to touch on price increases if he had simply been interested in justifying continued easing by the BOJ. Watanabe's survey suggested that a series of corporate price hikes have shifted how Japanese consumers view price levels. Kuroda's prepared speech included a section labeled "Signs of Changes in Inflation Expectations." But Japanese wages have not kept up with inflation Mecha-Godzilla:" oh big fuggen surprise there..".''' Cash earnings per capita fell 1.2% on the year in real terms this April, according to the government's Monthly Labor Survey. In his speech, Kuroda hypothesized that so-called forced savings from pandemic restrictions may have led to a higher tolerance for price hikes.

Godzilla:"HFS shit he actually said that...by not spending money and "saving" it during the lockdowns he thinks that the avg Japanese citizen will accept price hikes because they are just "swimming in savings"...JFC how THIS guy is still in charge..".

The question is how Japan, "while households are acceptant of price rises due to factors such as forced savings, can maintain a favorable macroeconomic environment to the extent possible and make this lead to a full-fledged rise in wages," he said. Kuroda later backpedaled on his remarks. At a Monday meeting of the upper house Budget Committee, the governor said he understood that "households are being forced to make the difficult choice to accept" higher prices.

Mecha-Godzilla:" WHAT A FUGGEN RETARD...of course they have to "acccept it" what is the alternative...FUQ this I'm gonna go take the out right FUGGEN now." Mkt Fag:"Patience Mecha-Godzilla...they need to be "in-charge" when it all goes pear-shaped...just like I told Godzilla not to take out the COMEX as the people that "run" it need to go down with the ship...Ok". Mecha-Godzilla:"Ok can I just go take a shit on the BOJ Bldg then ?". Mkt Fag"Robots can take a shit?..yeah sure go ahead by all means I'm not gonna stop you."

1 of 2

>>138874

yeah that about fits it

deal we must

>>138875

ty all you can do

>>138876

that's not a good sign/look dhere

Fear proning it up with that.

Let's hope it's not like this

@wqnderwqman

·

1h

NEW — The January 6th committee chairman says the panel will not make any criminal referral of @realDonaldTrump or anyone else to the Department of Justice.

>>138635 pb

TITAN25 USAF E-4B Nightwatch departed Bangkok Int'l westSec. of Defense Austin leaving Thailand

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Conducts Press Briefing, Bangkok, Thailand

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3060541/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-conducts-press-briefing-bangkok-thailand/

C202 US Coast Guard G5 departed Singapore WN

Chinese AF OMA4066 Bombardier CRJ700 NE out of Xiamen'

>>138804

Silver Ag contracts from June 10th Friday- 99,0947 at 5k ozs per contract= 495,235,000/ozs with an input price of $21.85/oz gives you $10.820B in total cost for Ag COMEX 'trading'

This will increase quite a bit for today when these numbers come out later tonight for today's action-they had 50k already just 2 hours in today.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.volume.options.html#optionProductId=458

>>138896

ty muh nizza

>>138897

yvw mang

>>138898

i'm going

tap, tap

ttyitm

mebby some of this tech shit be sorted by the morning

l

>>138900

was just thinkin a break would be guud

g'nite g mang

hopin they get it sorted yo

wut a mess