/qrb/ - QResearch Bunker

"Rubble" Surges To 2-Month Highs Against Dollar As Russia Works To Reduce FX Volatility

Having crashed to a record low of 121.5 per dollar shortly after the Ukraine war began - triggering memories of the battering it took during the 1998 Russian financial crisis - the Ruble was (for a brief period) the most potent symbol of the crushing blow that The West had struck against Russia's economic fortunes.

Things were so bad that President Biden took to Twitter to mock the currency, saying that it had been reduced to "rubble"...

filed under tweets that did not age well-only after two weeks too

As a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half. It was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion — and soon, it will not even rank among the top 20. — President Biden (@POTUS) March 26, 2022

Two weeks later, things look a little different as the Russian currency has soared higher against the USDollar - now at its strongest against the greenback in two months. There are numerous reasons for the rebound, including capital controls, but the main drivers appear to be Putin's "Rubles for Gas" ultimatums.

from April 1st

Putin May Collect $321 Billion Windfall If Oil and Gas Keep Flowing

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/putin-may-collect-321-billion-windfall-if-oil-gas-keep-flowing

Of course, due to the embarrassing nature of this resurgence going against the sanction-crushed-'rubble' narrative from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen quickly jumped into rubbish the market's comeback here, claiming that the market for rubles has become so manipulated by actions of the Russian government and its central bank to limit capital outflows that "you should not infer anything" from the value of the ruble.

since you've been so "right" as the FRB chair and now the Treasury Sec...thaks for the 'input' Janey.../s

However, all the time China, India (and much of Europe) is still buying Putin's energy and ag products... no matter how loud the threats come from Washington, the Ruble will stave off the "rubble" narrative.

Additionally, Russian FinMin Anton Siluanov noted this morning that Russia will do everything to ensure its creditors receive debt payments, and is working on measures to reduce ruble volatility, make ruble exchange rate more predictable.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rubble-surges-2-month-highs-against-dollar-russia-works-reduce-fx-volatility

>>132626 pb

China warns of strong measures if U.S. Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan

China warned on Thursday it would take strong measures if U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and said such a visit would severely impact Chinese-U.S. relations, following media reports she would go next week.

The possible visit has not been confirmed by Pelosi's office or Taiwan's government, but some Japanese and Taiwanese media reported it would take place after she visits Japan this weekend.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters that Beijing firmly opposed all forms of official interactions between the United States and Taiwan, and Washington should cancel the trip.

Sunday marks the 43rd anniversary of the United States signing into law the Taiwan Relations Act, which guides ties in the absence of formal diplomatic relations and enshrines a U.S. commitment to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

The last time a House speaker visited Taiwan was in 1997, when Newt Gingrich met then-President Lee Teng-hui.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/07/china-warns-of-strong-measures-if-us-speaker-pelosi-visits-taiwan.html

and now dis

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tests positive for COVID-19

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, a spokesman for the California Democrat said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-tests-positive-covid-19/

betcha she still goes.

>>132658

Dayamn. That ain’t no dead-cat bounce. That’s a randy tomcat out on a Saturday night.

Keep on Truckin, Putin!

Trudeau set to spend oil windfall on social and climate programs

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to deliver a budget that will funnel revenue windfalls from soaring oil prices toward costly new programs, passing up another chance to shore up Canada’s finances following record pandemic era spending.

Trudeau’s finance chief, Chrystia Freeland, is expected to use her second budget to roll out more than $100 billion (US$80 billion) in new spending promises, despite the government having run record deficits to blunt the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fiscal trajectory, however, may be little changed given federal coffers are awash in new revenue from inflation and high commodity prices. The plan, due Thursday around 4 p.m. in Ottawa, is set to continue the tradition of Trudeau’s fiscal policy since taking power in 2015: a preference for new spending over returning the budget to balance, while trying to keep deficits low enough to reassure Canadians and investors he remains fiscally prudent. “It’s a bit of a balancing act,” said Elliot Hughes, a former adviser to Freeland’s predecessor who is now a consultant with Ottawa-based Summa Strategies. He said the governing Liberals will be “making commitments and developing policies and spending money in areas they feel will help boost the economy,” while acknowledging “a desire from many corners of the economy in Canada to have the government demonstrate fiscal restraint.” The case for deficit financing, however, is getting more difficult with inflation at a three-decade high and the economy running up against capacity, prompting calls from business groups for the government to curtail ambitions and focus more on growth initiatives. Spending as a share of output was already poised to settle at the highest levels since the early 1990s, even before any new measures. “I don’t know if it’s going to hit all the boxes that corporate Canada is looking to have checked off,” Hughes said.

When Freeland presented a budget update in December, the government was on track to post a $144.5 billion deficit in the fiscal year that ended March 31. That gap was set to gradually decline to $13.1 billion in 2026-27. Since then, multiple events have transpired that will result in both more revenue and higher spending. Inflation is generating major revenue windfalls, fueled in part by spiking energy prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But that war has in turn put pressure on Trudeau’s government to increase Canada’s defense spending. Last month, the Liberals signed a deal with the left-leaning New Democratic Party to ensure they can govern until 2025 in exchange for strengthening the social safety net, particularly around introducing publicly-funded programs for prescription drug and dental coverage. Government sources have told Bloomberg News the budget will include significant measures on housing affordability.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-set-to-spend-oil-windfall-on-social-and-climate-programs-1.1748975

>>132448 Blinken departs to Brussels-SAM672

>>132566, >>132657

SAM672 USAF C-32A Blinken departing Brussels Int'l after arriving on 0405

U.S. Congress votes to revoke Russia’s trade status, ban oil and gas imports following atrocities in Bucha

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with G-7 and NATO leaders in Brussels, one day after the U.S. announced new penalties on Russia that included a ban on all new investment in the country and sanctions on President Vladimir Putin’s daughters.

“I came here today to discuss three most important things: weapons, weapons, and weapons,” Kuleba said in a tweet.

Reports of rape and torture against civilians by Vladimir Putin’s forces drew strong condemnation from G-7 members, who voted to remove Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council.

The atrocities also galvanized action in the U.S. where the Congress voted to strip Russia of its most favored nation trading status and to ban its oil and gas imports. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to quickly sign both into law.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/07/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

SAM755 USAF G4 sw from JBA depart

>>132652

SAM731 USAF G5 on descent for Barbados from JBA depart earlier today

US, Caribbean discuss regional security this week in Barbados

REGIONAL security issues are high on the agenda as the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and the Barbados Defence Force co-host the Caribbean Nations Security Conference (CANSEC) between April 5 and 7, 2022, in Bridgetown, Barbados.

https://guyanachronicle.com/2022/04/06/us-caribbean-discuss-regional-security-this-week-in-barbados/

ELVIS44 USAF C-17 Globemaster departed Fresno Int'l after an overnight and inbound from Memphis

Airport code here is FAT

These calls are based out of Memphis and not a usual sight on the west coast.

https://twitter.com/ReutersLegal/status/1512148765855326209

Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed by a 53-47 Senate vote as the first Black woman to serve on SCOTUS. It's a milestone for U.S. and a victory for President Biden, as he seeks to diversify the federal judiciary

Hello QRB fam, from UK Bread. A quick general update on what we are digging for to try and narrow the timeframe on the WW pics.

We have found 3 different light decorations to use as micro markers to mark changes that occurred across the 45-day time period of the 2013 WW season.

Short and sweet, with pictorial and vidcap evidence we are starting to eliminate the month of November and first weeks of December by noting certain decorative lights seen in the Q pic of the roller coaster. The first marker is a light seen on the right ridge of a hip roof of a candy floss stand. This light, seen lit in the Q pic, is the third light from the eaves. We found the November pics show this light as unlit. And some early December pics show the lights on that side ridge are displaced (4DEC) and poss. temporarily removed pending repair as of (11DEC). Matches of this candy floss stand’s lights begin to be seen by 15DEC. Of note is rainy weather habbening on the 13th during the afternoon, but clearing by 8pm which would allow for that star being visible over the coaster in the Q pic, plus the still damp ground seen in the WW pics. My current fav is the 13th of DEC for reasons just mentioned, plus the lights on the XMAS GRILL stand which would, on the 13th, would have one moar lit light than the lights seen on the 15th.

Still looking and finding vids though, so haven’t yet eliminated the latter part of DEC. I will say one thing though. Q may have been giving us a hint to look in DEC when they asked, What event occurs in DEC in Hyde Park? Leaving some pics to show you guys what we are looking at. But remember we plan to chart it all out on a graph using all 3 reference points.

Cheers fam. Allspeed to you.

p.s. May add a few to give you an idea of how severely we scrutinize those vids.

>>132678

>no handle on constitutional law whatsoever but She.Black will cancel out Thomas

>>132679

Moar pics looked at in WW dig.

>>132679

Moar pics we got from some guy’s coaster vid. We are looking at the lights from that candy floss stand.

'''Mkt Fag: What a hopeless hopium day for the NAS but it got by with a little "help from some (tech bounce) frens" edition

They were waiting for another "peace gonna break out" headline-all low volume drifting down except for the DOW that had a little respite but another big block trade at 10:00am (3.63m) and same thing on the SP500 at exact same time-21.45m. They simply have no idea wut to do...but they HAVE to do something. And then MAGICALLY (and mostly technically related to the 50/200 DMAs that were breached yesterday) the NAS/DOW/SP500 started it's ascent up at 12:48pm EST-all at the same time on literally nothing (or mebby they are gonna use the Supreme Court confirmation vote as that excuse)-can't have those consecutive down days or shit starts happening-leverage a bitch when it is constantly mistaken for "smarts"-and not disapponiting here either. And to muh surprise they all closed Green...../s. The last 15 minutes almost screwed the NAS from going green but they managed it...just

They even had some leakage into the biggest bull trap of the last year-DWAC green...imagine that...where are those pumpers nao? kek! "get it while you can"-they said when it was just under $75/sh-complete amateurs and if you din't see that coming you shouldn't be "in" the markets at all-those big buys at market in late January set the trap. Some one 'gave it up' right before the close though so we'll see how that gets treated tomorrow. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DWAC

Treasury yields have resumed the upward march after taking a pause with the 10s a full 10.5 basis points higher than the 2s at time of posting-see cap#3 and #4 for entire curve so SOLIDLY uninverted-figihting that yield inversion HARD now. It was a full 20bp higher earlier today. I wonder where all that "supply" came from (cough, reverse repos).-see below and the latest Fed head comment had much to do with that -The Fed has the yield curve in mind. Today, St Louis Fed James Bullard, a voter and the most hawkish Fed member said the Fed needs to hike 300 bps but also to watch yield curve inversion.

Metals having a decent day (after the smackdown it had in both yesterday and each dip being bought-still paper though-Ag premiums have never been this high for this long-not even in 2010-11. You had extended delivery times but you were NOT paying $40 for a Silver Eagle (avg. on low amounts purchased) That doesn't look likely to resolve itself anytime soon-this applies to most sovereign issued coins but premiums and availability are better on non U.S. mint coins-and have improved on generic silver rounds ala Bufalos. The walking liberty (eagle) market is ree-dick-u-lous at this point. Someone has already broken the physical Ag market but we don't know who yet. Au best day in a week but totally stuck in a long term range.

Speaking of breaking..looks like a big bet being placed on AMC short squeeze prior to it's Q1 earnings release on May 9th. Big buys in calls @ $51 strike for Apr 22 expiry.

>>>/qresearch/16030264 Do Options Traders Know Something About AMC Entertainment (AMC) Stock We Don't?

>>>/qresearch/16030282 AMC Percentage of Shares Shorted 20.36%-Betting on another short squeeze

Our 'frens' at the FRBNY haz posted it's daily MBS transaction and it is as follows

Total Amount Submitted: $3.194B Total Amount Accepted: $1.48B

But we're really gonna stop this soon...../s

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs

Reverse Repos still going "strong" at almost $2t a day-see cap #5

And you can see why I stopped counting at $70T as it just continues..and they wonder where all this supply is coming from being sold into the bond complex.....who'd thought?..kek

This is still "unavailable"

Treasury Securities Operations

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/treasury-securities

Oil bounced off $94 earlier but still under $100 but as they say gas prices go up like a rocket and down like a feather

https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart

some headlines

In load it up news: see here from March 18th >>130919 pb

U.S. consumer credit growth soars in February

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-credit-growth-soars-in-february-11649358503

Natural-gas futures end at highest since 2008; oil settles lower

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-futures-end-at-highest-since-2008-oil-settles-lower-2022-04-07

interdasting read here

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March: A Sea Change in Active Inventory

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html

https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC

>>132672

SAM731 USAF G5 nw from Bridgetown, Barbados ground stop of about 2 hours

>>132671

SAM755 USAF G5 already back at JBA from MacDill AFB ground stop of about 1 hour

Looks like a little delay while the weather cleared prior to final approach

MOTION to Compel Production of Documents for In Camera Review by USA as to MICHAEL A. SUSSMANN

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/60390583/64/united-states-v-sussmann/

>>132673

ELVIS44 USAF C-17 Globemaster on ground at JB Elmendorf from Fresno

Dutch AF NAF11 G4 se from Peterson AFB after an overnight-inbound from Rovaniemi, Finland on 0406 with a stop at Keflavik AB, Iceland for a refuel

>>132525 pb

MANGO28 USAF G5 departed JBA after arriving Tuesday evening-

Indo-Pac brass back to Hickam

>>132689

Dutch AF NAF11 heading to Wichita Falls-transponder off before making the final approach turn

>>132670

SAM672 USAF C-32A Blinken heading to JBA from Brussels depart earlier today

SAM693 USAF C-32A departed Skunkworks (Lancaster, Ca) after arriving from Los Angeles Int'l earlier today

Spent about 4 hours at Skunkworks

Arrived as ANON on 0405 and switched to that at about 1k ft on final at LAX on 0405 from it's JBA depart-cap #2

Sorry I missed that pilot

07

>>132684

> the NAS/DOW/SP500 started it's ascent up at 12:48pm EST-all at the same time on literally nothing...

Is the New York Fed’s Trading Floor Near the Futures Exchange in Chicago Behind the Erratic Gyrations in the Stock Market?

The Editor of Wall Street On Parade has been watching stock market trading patterns for more than three decades – 21 of those years at two Wall Street firms. A new pattern is emerging that strongly suggests there is an invisible hand flipping the market on a dime from a plunge in prices to a dramatic spike in prices. This could happen legitimately if sudden positive news broke, but it is happening regularly with no major news to explain the dramatic shift in sentiment-today being the most recent example see linky above for today's Mkt Report. The caps capture just four examples of what is becoming an increasingly familiar pattern in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

On January 31 Wall Street On Parade reported that the New York Fed, which is the only one of the 12 regional Fed banks to have a trading floor – complete with those expensive Bloomberg data terminals and speed dials to Wall Street’s biggest trading houses – had decided for some reason after 100 years of operation that it needed a second trading floor in Chicago. What does Chicago have that New York does not have that might come in handy to those traders at the New York Fed? The Chicago office of the New York Fed sits close to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where S&P 500 futures are traded, as well as other futures contracts. The closer one is to the computers that process those S&P 500 trades, the bigger the trading advantage.

Let’s say, hypothetically, that there are some large hedge funds that correctly sense that the Fed has created a market bubble that is going to explode now that the Fed has allowed inflation to get out of control and the Fed has to slam on the brakes with a rapid series of interest rate hikes. Those hedge funds might be looking to pounce on the market at the open by shorting (selling) S&P 500 futures in Chicago. To prevent these hedge funds from seeing this maneuver as an easy means of reaping windfall returns while driving the market lower and lower without resistance, the New York Fed, again hypothetically, might want to launch its own counteracting purchases of the S&P 500 futures contracts. This would produce what is known as a short squeeze, where the hedge funds have to quickly buy S&P 500 futures to cover the shorts they put on, turning the market on a dime and pushing it dramatically higher.

Certainly no one wants to see the stock market crash. But is it really the job of the central bank of the United States – which is tasked with setting monetary policy – to have an ever-expanding trading floor in two major trading hubs in the U.S. and traders duking it out with hedge funds?

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/04/is-the-new-york-feds-trading-floor-near-the-futures-exchange-in-chicago-behind-the-erratic-gyrations-in-the-stock-market/

>>132497 Mkt Fag: No relief for the NAS or anywhere else ftmp edition

>>124181, >>124182 The New York Fed Has Quietly Staffed Up a Second Trading Floor Near the S&P 500 Futures Market in Chicago

>>132685

SAM731 USAF G5 departed Miami Int'l after a ground stop of about 1 hour 15 minutes after it's Bridgetown, Barbados depart

505kts @ 41k ft

>>132690

MANGO28 USAF G5 departed Mather Airport after arriving from Langley (not JBA as previously stated)

Went to Langley from JBA yesterday

Indo-Pac brass visited spooks at Langley all day yesterday

Yakuza leader arrested in U.S. for drugs for missiles plot

A yakuza leader and three Thai associates have been arrested in New York for allegedly conspiring to obtain surface-to-air missiles for groups in Myanmar using narcotics as a payment, the U.S. Department of Justice announced Thursday.

A Drug Enforcement Administration investigation led to the arrest of Takeshi Ebisawa of Japan, dual U.S.-Thai citizen Suksan Jullanan and Sompak Rukrasaranee of Thailand on April 4. Somphop Singhasiri of Thailand was arrested on April 5.

"The drugs were destined for New York streets, and the weapons shipments were meant for factions in unstable nations. Members of this international crime syndicate can no longer put lives in danger and will face justice for their illicit actions," U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a news release.

The four men all face a maximum of life imprisonment for charges relating to international weapons and narcotics trafficking. Ebisawa, a leader within a Japanese transnational organized crime syndicate known as yakuza, has also been charged with money laundering.

The DEA investigation into Ebisawa's connections to narcotics and weapons trafficking had been ongoing since 2019 and spanned the globe. DEA offices across six countries and three continents were all involved, as was law enforcement in Japan, Thailand and Indonesia. U.S. officials allege that Ebisawa, Jullanan and Rukrasaranee conspired to broker the purchase from an undercover DEA agent of American-made surface-to-air missiles and other weaponry for multiple ethnic armed groups in Myanmar. The arms were said to have been taken from American military bases in Afghanistan. Ebisawa and Singhasiri, for partial payment of the weapons, then allegedly conspired to sell 500 kg of heroin and 500 kg of methamphetamine meant for distribution in New York.

"The expansive reach of transnational criminal networks, like the yakuza, presents a serious threat to the safety and health of all communities. Ebisawa and his associates intended to distribute hundreds of kilograms of methamphetamine and heroin to the United States, using deadly weapons to enable their criminal activities," DEA Administrator Anne Milgram said in the news release.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Yakuza-leader-arrested-in-U.S.-for-drugs-for-missiles-plot

BOJ Is Likely to Adjust Policy as Soon as July, Ex-Official Says

The Bank of Japan is likely to adjust its control of yields as soon as this summer due to concerns about a weak yen and public discontent over inflation, according to a former BOJ executive director.

The view sharply contrasts with the stated position of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has repeatedly said he will stick with stimulus even as the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates to tackle inflation. A string of unprecedented bond market interventions backed up his remarks last week. “They can’t keep doing this for that long,*” Hideo Hayakawa, a former director at the bank, said in an interview. “Market participants seem to think the BOJ won’t budge because Governor Kuroda sounds very firm but I don’t think that’s the case.”

*yes they can and will continue to do so-this is just someone being trotted out appearing to be responsible

Hayakawa’s remarks come after the central bank faced both market pressure on its upper limit on bond yields and a slide in the yen to its weakest level since 2015. While speculation persists among some traders that the BOJ will adjust policy to ensure its stimulus framework in the face of market pressure, most economists don’t expect a policy shift this year. Without changing its basic framework of monetary easing, the bank may widen its yield target band of 25 basis points either side of zero or shift its targeted yields to those of five years from 10 years, Hayakawa said. The move could take place as soon as the July policy meeting, he said.

A big factor that will spur the BOJ to change policy is the weakening of the yen, Hayakawa said. While the BOJ has repeatedly said the yen is positive for the economy overall, the impact is close to 50/50 and households’ discomfort is set to grow further as inflation picks up in Japan, too, said Hayakawa, who left the bank in 2013. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has ordered his government to compile measures to cushion the economic pain of a rise in oil and daily necessities by the end of this month. It’s critical for him to keep public support in the lead up to elections this summer.

The BOJ should pay close attention to currency levels because its efforts to hold down interest rates are weakening the yen, a senior member of the Japanese ruling coalition party Komeito told Bloomberg. The yen is becoming delinked from economic fundamentals since real effective rates are already down to the lowest levels in decades* and the bank shouldn’t seek or try to weaken it more, he said.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boj-is-likely-to-adjust-policy-as-soon-as-july-ex-official-says-1.1749479

*that is a nice way of saying they are negative-when adjusted for real inflation-and have been for many years

Never gonna happen

all backwards and sheitz

kek

was just about to post one and bail

100 fuggen d here today

>>132704

>>132705

I find where I put that bilge pump I need to make a swamp cooler

>>132706

got a homemade one like that too-It werks.

mine exits the top with an old piece of dryer vent

Not gonna cool it off much but keeps it pretty stable after the unit runs.

night