If you push biotech to the point of speciation, then you better make sure that anyone you'd like to have children with has the exact same modifications you do.
That gives a strong pressure to avoid speciation, and I'm not sure which desirable changes would even make speciation necessary.
I can only see it happen in the case of fully isolated populations over a period way longer than the options in the poll.
Four separate options for a period under a century and only one for >500 years is ridiculous, especially if you're explicitly mentioning the possiblity of a "natural occurrence".
