FOR HALF a century the Middle East’s petro-monarchies have cast themselves as reliable suppliers of low-cost petroleum. The third Gulf war, now in its fifth week, has shattered that image. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, 15% of the world’s oil cannot reach its customers. All Gulf states have slashed output and seen export proceeds plunge.
All bar one. As its tankers keep plying the strait (see chart 1), Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war.
Working out how many barrels the world’s greatest sanctions-dodger exports is hard. Its tankers are more furtive than ever, commercial providers of satellite imagery have paused their updates for the region and electronic scrambling has thrown a fog across the Gulf. But a source with knowledge of Iran’s oil accounting, who spoke to The Economist on condition of anonymity, confirms the country is currently exporting 2.4m-2.8m barrels of oil and petroleum products per day (b/d), including 1.5m-1.8m b/d of crude. That is the same, if not more, than it did on average last year. It also sells at much higher prices.
Moreover, Iran’s oil machine has adapted in ways that make it more resilient to strikes and sanctions. …
All details of the ships, including cargo, crew names and destinations, are communicated to the IRGC via intermediaries upon departure. Once vetted by the force’s naval command, says a source, a passcode is issued. As ships approach the strait, they are asked to provide the code by radio; if approved, a small IRGC boat escorts them through. …
Despite America’s decision last week to waive sanctions on the sale of the near-record 150m Iranian barrels already at sea, Iranian tankers continue to use every trick available—stealing other ships’ credentials, forging documents, spoofing their locations—to conceal their cargo’s provenance. “They think the waiver is a trap,” says a source familiar with Iran’s shipping business. Most transfer their load on the high seas off Malaysia or Singapore to legitimate-looking vessels for the final leg.
That end of the journey is almost always China, which absorbs over 90% of Iran’s oil. …
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This shadow payment system is run by dedicated departments inside Iranian firms controlled by Iran’s defence ministry or the IRGC, which operate like informal banks. …
Transactions are now routed through two or three extra layers of shell companies and handled with “extreme caution”,…
https://archive.is/IRnul#selection-1361.0-1593.354
