No.5383 [View All]
This thread is about the coming financial meltdown that is likely to happen throughout 2019.
In the other thread I named some possible reasons already:
>record company earnings/profitability
>lowest unemployment of the last 50 years
>record stock buybacks by companies
>difference between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields on 11 year lows (yield curve)
Those are indicators that were present just before pretty much all of our past recessions as well.
Especially the yield curve was always very helpful in that regard.
Then we also have:
>record debt levels in governments
>record debt levels in corporations
>Increasing interest rates
>fed unloading equity from their balance sheet to the open markets (mostly stocks)
So the fed is reverting its easy money policies because they think the economy is doing great again.
In fact everything is very fragile.
In the past 10 years, companies used cheap credit by the federal reserve to invest. However, their investments are not always generating the desired cashflows. Now with interest rates rising again, they are using more and more of their cashflows for servicing their debts. Same goes for governments.
The federal reserve bought up lots of stocks since the last recession. For the past few months they have started offloading this crap again in the open market, putting additional downward pressure onto stocks.
For comparison here is the Dow Jones Stock Market Index during the last big crash.
It plunged from its ATH of 14'000 to around 6'000 during a time period of about 15 months.
I hope you enjoy our ride down and make some money off it.
____________________________
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No.21694
>>21690
>It will be very interesting to see how this trade war plays out.
Let us pray for a nuclear holocaust.
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No.21746
>>21694
>Now's not the time for nuclear yolocaust
>that comes layter
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No.21765
>>21690
>China needs the US high tech products
China produces all of the US high tech shit.
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No.21768
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No.21787
>>21690
Econ-doomer can you explain why the fuck btc is at $8600 and rising? why is the price going up? another pump?
>>21765
>implying assembling iphones is something only the chingchongs can do
Mexico makes phones too, apple could move iphone production there if necessary
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No.21842
>>21787
In 2018 when the price crashed on the exchange after being bubbled up, big fishes have been started buying up. I know one guy that works for a Lichtenstein investment company / private bank and he told me they are buying all the coins they can get. That was around November last year. He met the grandson of Erdogan in Stuttgart for a BTC deal. They were exchanging 500K Bitcoins.
So basically, the big fishes have been buying up this shit while the gulible get rich quick normies have been panick selling because they don't know how this market works. It always goes up because there is a finite amount of it. If every millionaire on the planet wanted to buy 1 BTC, there would be not enough for everyone.
Now there is a shortage of available coins because apparently everyone who wanted to sell to make some quick profits did sell already. I expected prices to sink to 1500 again. Apparently that happened earlier.
Basically people sold a portion of their BTC and spoiled themselves a little, but now nobody wants to sell because it is expected that 2017 happens again soon. People are getting greedy.
The new people coming to crypto hope for another 2017 and they are now buying from an ever decreasing amount of people who are willing to sell. Whales bought their coins for a few dollars per coin, they do not need the money but they also don't care if they sell at 3K or 15K. They are still set for life. And the big money people are also sitting on their coins because they know if this shit could easily break 20K without them, it can break 50K in the next bull run.
I personally believe BTC will go to 250K in the long run. But long run means 20+ years.
And I think it will become too expensive for ordinary people and instead, it will become a settlement system between countries and big corporations. Because in BTC you cannot be blocked out of your money if you piss off uncle Sam and Trump decides to put embargoes on you.
Very interesting what is happening now and I wonder if we will tank back to 1K5 in the coming months
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No.21843
>>21842
forgot to specify
The big fishes have been buying OTC (over the counter, not on official exchanges).
That means they wanted to get all the dormant coins that have been outside of the system to cause as less noise as possible on the exchanges.
I expect them to eventually move those coins onto the exchanges and then resell them to gullible normies for 15K per piece.
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No.21868
It is crashing back again
Always the same pattern, around a new 1000 mark, gamblers are cashing in their profits. One guy said the price will consolidate for a long time between 10K and 7K
Who knows, this world is a clown world anyways
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No.21875
>>21842
so would you recommend someone in my position (have about 5000$ max to spend) to be seriously considering bitcon?
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No.21877
>>21875
There are 2 scenarios:
>This is my savings account and I have literally no other money other than that and on top of that I am unemployed or on the verge of unemployment
no, better first to worry about source of income
besides, short term investment BTC is very insecure, it can always crash another 70% and if you can't stomach it, better dont play with it
>This is just some inheritance money I got from grandpa and I have a 9-5 job anyways and don't really need it. On top of that, I don't spend much money anyways so better to park this money and maybe in 20 years when I want to buy my own cabin in the woods I want to cash out
yes
and don't forget to keep receipts of your purchase
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No.21879
>>21877
second scenario, yes.
I already put 5000 in stocks that have lost a lot of value over the past 2 months. I feel like this was a mistake as my first investment, but going I told myself I didn't mind losing this money. So I'm sitting on these stocks for a long time.
In this case I will consider bitcoin. Is there a price you would say that I should absolutely buy if it goes down to it?
Thanks
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No.21884
>>21842
>They were exchanging 500K Bitcoins.
What? there's only 17 million btc in circulation
>But long run means 20+ years
>Because in BTC you cannot be blocked out of your money if you piss off uncle Sam and Trump decides to put embargoes on you.
Dunno, in less time we're gonna get actual quantum computers and those could easily break the encryption and thus double-spend thus rendering btc useless as a currency
Maybe thats why quantum computers went from being a tiny niche for IBM and dwave, to a massive new scene with everyone making a quantum chip. Bet there's government and bank money on this.
>I wonder if we will tank back to 1K5 in the coming months
What are the odds?
>>21843
>resell them to gullible normies for 15K per piece.
So the price would collapse before even reaching the last ATH?
>>21868
When you said that I was thinking 10%, still at over 8k.
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No.21946
>>21879
>a certain price
it is better to buy smaller portions over a few months
you might not get the best price but it gives you a balanced average.
If you are expecting BTC to shoot up to 50K then it does not matter what price you buy at anyways.
>burnt hands with stocks
I am sorry for you. Now it looks like we are entering a bear market again. But keep those stocks anyways, especially if they pay decent dividends. Maybe if the price crashes, you can buy some more stocks for cheap and get a better average price per share. Then you don't have to wait until it reaches a new all time high to sell with profit
>>21884
This is why I tell you Finex and Bitstamp are nothing
The real big fishes are OTC deals. What you see in exchanges, it is basically gullible normies buying the overpriced coins of whales. The big deals are done OTC
>quantum computers
sure that might be a thing eventually but you can ride the wave on the way there, right?
>what are the odds
my theory was that now with the economy slowing down, companies will start reducing costs and paying back debts. In this scenario cash becomes king and nobody buys anything anymore unless really needed. So I thought in the next recession, asset prices will fall again.
But now it looks like the USA China trade war is fueling BTC instead. I also read a news article where a former Chinese central banker was denied a USD 20K money transfer by the Chicom govt. The official reason was that he was "too old". Maybe people really start to look for uncucked alternatives to fiat money.
>So the price would collapse before even reaching the last ATH?
no, the art is to sell slowly. For example you buy 1000 BTC for cheap at 3K OTC.
Then you sit on them. Then prices start going up. Prices reach 15K.
Now is the time to start selling slowly.
You go to the exchange, transfer your coins. Then you sell 10 BTC every day.
Just small amounts to not disrupt the environment.
When you have sold your stuff, you wait for prices to crash again and repeat.
This is what they are doing.
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No.24136
Time to update my thread again
Here some of the interesting articles:
>Did boomers ruin everything
Negrohedge finally found out about the problem:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-28/did-boomers-ruin-everything
Then there was another article about boomers indirectly.
The main topic was about inflation and the question why there was no consumer price inflation after central banks injected record amounts of cheap credit into the financial system. The answer was something like this:
>from ages 0-34 most humans are net consumers
>from ages 35-65, most people are net savers
>from ages 65+, most people are net consumers again
The bottom line was that boomers, being the largest demographic group in the western world, are the key drivers to those numbers. When boomers were young, economy was thundering and stronk because they spent their monies. Then they became net savers, did not want to spend what they earned, outsourced, automated and optimized all processes in companies as well as at home to pump up their assets and pension funds.
Now that boomers are becoming retired retarded höhö, they want to spoil themselves and spend their cash. That means all that money that was stashed away from years, will find its way into the real economy and start a cycle of events that will inflate all consumer prices now.
It was a very good article but I cannot find it ATM, might post later or if any of you have it saved, post is.
>Blue Gold
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-25/blue-gold-horseshoe-crab-blood-worth-60k-gallon
If you have some of those crabs in your pond, their blood might be worth 60K per liter
that guy on /b/ seems to have been right
>Gold Asteroid worth 7 quintillion dollars
This is why bitcoin might be better bet than gold
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-26/golden-asteroid-worth-700-quintillion
if this space mining becomes reality, gold supply can increase while BTC supply is hard coded to 21M units
I am still waiting for the big crash btw. I researched this Jay Powell guy.
He released some papers a few years ago. In those papers he described something like this:
>the current situation in stock markets is very fragile
>if the central bank tightens its monetary policy, the entire construct comes down crashing
but interestingly, that is exactly what this little fucker did after he became fed chairman
so basically, Jay Powell is aware that what he is doing, will result in the stock markets crashing
but the real question is, why is he waiting? I mean, he could just do it and then put all the blame on Trump and his trade war with China.
The mainstream press would support his view anyways because Trump = evil
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No.24179
How does this paper monopoly money manage to hold value still?
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No.24185
Trying to dip my feet into crypto. Might not be such a good idea since I have no idea what I'm doing, but seeing those prices go up is really tempting. Can't help but feel like I missed the train on this one.
>>24136
>If you have some of those crabs in your pond, their blood might be worth 60K per liter
Those little guys are going to be harvested into extinction.
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No.24221
>>24179
It is a combination of 2 things:
One thing is like previously, boomers. They are not consuming. So all the money that was injected since Lehman, it went from the central bank to the commercial banks. But now it sits there doing nothing. The banks would love to get rid of it but there is nothing to invest it in, nor anyone to loan it out to either. There is nowhere for the money to go because nobody is taking out any new loans. Boomers are not buying yachts because they know financial situation for them is not good and they cannot spend cash on stupid stuff. So this newly created money is sitting at the banks and waiting to go out in the real world but nobody is taking out loans.
Then the second reason. Young people are broke. They do not have well paid jobs, and no job security. So they can obviously not take out loans for mortgages, weddings or cars. And as they do not move in with their sweethearts either, there is no furniture for IKEA to sell them either. Companies have seen those trends, and companies do not even invest either they do not take out loans for investments. Because they think those trends will stay like that for long time. So basically you have an environment where nobody wants to spend because everyone thinks situation is only gonna get worse in the coming years.
This is what surprised the Fed for so long.
>holy fucking shit dudes, we injected all those trillions into the monetary system, where the fuck is consumer price inflation? We barely hit 2% this year after being near 0 for years.
However, there is actually one thing where inflation does come up. It is asset prices. Be it stocks, commercial real estate or real estate for people to live in. Be it bitcoins or gold. Prices of those things have exploded in the past few years.
You can also notice it on rent and health care prices that have also skyrocketed in the past few years.
The govt just conveniently does not count those in for their calculation of inflation so they can lie better
Prices have gone up simply because of speculation. People who had access to those cheap loans commercial banks, hedge funds have used the cheap money to speculate with it. When you pay 0.1% interest on a loan, you can take out 1 trillion in debt and go gamble with this money on the stocks markets. when interest rate is only 0.1%, you can make a measly 1% return on investment, pay out your interest and you still made 900 Billions in net profits from wanking your dick to stocks charts.
But all those price increases are worthless because the underlying economy was stagnating the entire time. And when the next recession happens, all those inflated prices will crash 50% minimum. It is all one giantic bubble. Last time we had the real estate bubble in 2008. In 2001 we had the tech bubble. This time it is the everything bubble.
>>24185
In the long run I believe BTC will go to 250K. But for me long run means 20+ years. Dunno if you can wait that long.
Also keep in mind that in year 2020 the next halving happens. That means mining rewards will halve again and that should mean further upwards pressure for BTC prices as production costs are going up for miners to mine them.
The problem with BTC is that it can crash 90% any time and many people don't have the nerves to gut that and then sell at a loss instead of just waiting for the next bullrun
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No.24222
>>24221
On companies and investing I forgot to add
Companies nowadays only invest to optimize their own processes read: costs. So, if they can buy a machine to fire 200 workers fixed costs, they will invest. Because you know, interest rates are near 0% anyways. So they can take out 100M USD for new machines and they pay a measly 100K in interest per year while the machines lets them fire thousands of workers. But they will not invest in new production facilities as there is nobody to buy their crap as nobody is taking out loans and nobody is spending their savings to buy their stuff.
This of course only generates more pessimistic atmosphere amongst workers
>oh shit another 200 people got fired, I wonder when I am next, better save money and not buy that fancy new SUV I wished to buy for christmas
Also, this again is this balance sheet recession phenomenon that this Hong Kong guy described. I wrote about it in earlier postings.
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No.24474
Moar news from clown world anons:
>IMF's Lagarde Picked To Replace Mario Draghi As ECB President
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-02/uber-dove-lagarde-rumored-replace-mario-draghi-ecb-president
here is the funniest about her:
>is not an economist
>is lawyer
>has fetish for Louis Vuitton handbags
>is convicted criminal (France)
>colossally mismanaged the greece crisis:
<by year 2015, greece will have net positive growth again
>real world: 2019: greece is still in the shitter and not coming out, debts are still high and there is no growth.
And young people are outsourced to go work in germany as baristas, waiters or furniture movers
You could have Jens Weidmann but of course he would not continue Super Mario's policy of easy money and you didnt like this.
>Lagarde's nomination is a sign that the ECB is standing by its commitment to 'diversity'
sure, because better give positions to people because they are of the right gender and race. Fuck giving positions to actually capable people. That is so 1980….
On a side note. A few weeks ago Trump cried about Powell not easing interest rates and said Draghi would be much better.
Now is his oppurtunity. He can hire Draghi now as first trans atlantic central bank chairman ever and he will print like bernank and greenspam together.
Which brings us to the next fishy thing that happened today:
>Gold Surges After Trump Nominates Gold Standard Advocate Judy Shelton To Fed Board
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-02/gold-surges-after-trump-nominates-gold-standard-advocate-judy-shelton-fed-board
Please keep in mind, for Negrohedge, "surge" means a measly 20$ increase in the price of gold. But the more interesting thing is here:
>Judy Shelton, a sound money and free trade advocate, is Trumps choice for the Fed board
So basically the story goes like this:
>first I make fun of Jay Powell and critisize him that he keeps interest rates high and does not want to print and pump more money into the stock market
>then I nominate somoene to Fed board, from the crowd of people that say printing money is evil and destroys economies
On April 21st she is quoted in a finance magazine:
>It’s entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates
And if you read the article you find out, she also claimed she would lower interest rates in 1 to 2 years to near 0 levels. That explains why he wanted her on board.
Also, Alan Greenspan did have publications about why gold is the only sound money and as soon as he get the fed chairman position, he printed like noone else before.
Business as usual. All of them are sellout bitches. Nobody will ever stand his or her ground. Just always focused to sit in the big chair among the cool kids. Fucking insects.
But I like her pearl necklace
More from burgerland:
>The US Military Could Soon Ban Beer And Pizza In Favor Of A Mandatory Ketogenic Diet
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-02/us-military-could-soon-ban-beer-and-pizza-favor-mandatory-ketogenic-diet-0
finally, after the paleo community has been shilling paleo diet as late as 2012, burgerland authorities seem to understand that high fructose corn syrup is killing their cattle away
In case you did not notice yet, Trump is a sellout and the most Wallstreet president ever. Even more than Obummer.
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No.24667
Anons, Deutsche is back in the news again:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-05/expect-lehman-style-scenes-outside-deutsche-bank-offices-monday-mass-firings-begin
Could become a problem of Lehman brothers porportions …
Remember, DB was the guys who were heavily invested in greek trash bonds during the euro crisis of 2010/2011. Without Merkels bailout of greece, they would probably been insolvent years ago already.
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No.25118
Really makes you think …
And BTW, Jay Pee confirmed this week he is gonna lower interest rates by end of July. Stock markets reached new all time highs.
This is really getting funny.
Fundamental data from international trade like cargo shipping or manufacturing inventory buildup is telling us that a recession is coming. So are the bond yield curves
Yet here we are with DOW STRONK and everything to infinity.
One guy posted this might become the first recession ever where Asset prices continue to skyrocket.
Funny isnt it
Oh yeah and buttcoin is crashing again. Still up 6K (150%) compared to March/April
Now shills are predicting prices of 100K after the halving in 2020. They seem to forget that already 16M BTC is mined and in circulation (excluding satoshis 1M coins).
>when youre internet nerd cryptography project becomes the biggest speculation bubble in human history
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No.25119
>>25118
About that chart
1971 was when US President Nixon announced the US central bank is uncoupling the US Dollar from gold and that you cannot come and exchange US dollars for gold anymore. Ever since prices of everything measured in USD exploded. Pure coincidence.
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No.25121
I have been rambling about yield curve inversion a few times already.
Here is what is meant by that term.
Whenever the blue line crossed the red line, there was usually a recession coming about 300 days later. This happened in January 2019 again ….
Basically, incestors would rather buy long term bonds than short term bonds because they think in the short term, there will be turbulences ahead and even the lower yielding long term product will get them better overall performance than risking their portfolio to tank in the next recession. This is why now everybody wants long term bonds and the interest rates are falling. Because there is less and less alternatives for short term investing
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No.25123
and here a very interesting article on energy and how it relates to our problems:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-11/why-stimulus-cant-fix-our-energy-problems
Up until now, I only ever thought of when energy prices are too high, then it is a problem because consumer cannot afford to drive cars anymore and the entire economy grinds to a halt
But of course, you have the same problem on the supply side as well. If energy prices are lower than production costs, nobody is gonna invest in new oil fields or alternative energy systems and that is the rather more nasty situation. Because the first thing you can medicate with Liquidity injections and quantitative easing, low interest rates etc. But once companies understand that their investments are fruitless, nobody is gonna touch risky projects even with a 10 foot pole …
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No.25127
>>25118
>when you're internet nerd cryptography project becomes the biggest speculation bubble in human history
Iceland-san, my friend; I am in full agreement with you that 99.99% of cryptocurrencies, ICOs, and dapps are either scams, bubbles and/or overambitious failures. I am also in full agreement that there are many useful idiots, and especially con men and hope pushers in the cryptocurrency and libertarian communities who have vested interests in distorting facts and price predictions (John McAfee, Andraes Antanopolous, Craig Wright, Jeff Berwick, Roger Ver, and other libertarian and cryptocurrency public figures.) But what's going on with cryptocurrencies is the exact same thing that happens with every new lucrative industry, people get excited and con men take advantage of it. The same thing happened with the dotcom bubble, and yet, here we are, the internet didn't collapse, in fact, some of us need it far more than most others. The only thing that happened was an immense correction in the markets.
I advise of you not to throw out the baby with the bathwater and realize the applications cryptocurrency has, and will have in an innovated form. For the first time in human history, the world has the means to render the global banking cartel's fiefdom obsolete. Means of exchange used to be something only governments and central banks could dictate, and it always resulted in financial and economic serfdom and collapse, but with cryptocurrency, there is increasingly no longer any reason to use their promissory notes, especially for those living in dire economic situations. Venezuelans are turning to cryptocurrencies to preserve their wealth against hyperinflation, the Turks and Iranians are doing the same, to a lesser extent since their economies aren't as awful. They do so, not out of ideology, but because it's the best hedge they can get, regardless if there are better alternatives. Gold and silver may be almost impossible to obtain, or the government could just steal it all like Roosevelt did with Executive Order 6102. Imagine what's gonna happen when the US dollar collapses like the British Pound and other reserve currencies before it, what the economic effects of a crisis of that magnitude will be. The SDR will only be something governments can use, so where will the world turn to then?
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No.25128
>>25127
you're really bored, aren't you?
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No.25138
>>25127
>Venezuelans are turning to cryptocurrencies to preserve their wealth against hyperinflation
not really, almost no one uses cripto, people use dollars. The ones using cripto are money launderers, that´s why you see a huge spike in "cripto adoption" charts. Its BS, is only a very little group of corrupt government cronies and mafias that launder a shitton of money and use it to bypass sanctions. The exact same people that caused the hiperinflation in the first place now love cripto, go figure.
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No.25140
>>25127
>when a weeaboo basementfags cryptographic experiment is the worlds only hope for freedom during times of financial repression and abuse by governments all over the globe
truly we live in depressive times …
I do understand your point. But look what BTC has become. A pump and dump scheme to lure in normies, let them buy the tops, then sell the living shit out of the market to make them panic sell when prices are 30% under water. Only to go up again a few weeks later. The idea behind btc was genius tier. But as always, the people that got involved in it, corrupted it forever…
>>25128
It is not like I have anything better to do entire day, once I come back home exhausted from bombsketball
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No.25155
have $5 in monero, what's the quickest way to mine enough for the safu binance to make it bitcoin?
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No.25177
>>25155
By injecting mining scripts on piratebay
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No.25182
>5383
>the flag
yeah i believe you
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No.25183
>>25182
Again (k)countryballing? One ban wasn't enough for you?
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No.25185
>>5402
typical cause of .com/it/tech hype
1.becomne unproductive / uninnovative
2. bend over
>>5488
dude , no worries , pension system along with a lot other crap is a scam
just calculate for one human how much of an average income one would have to "save" for retirement to live and maintain a average lifestyle while unable or at reduced productivity, assumeing person will live a average lifespan of 30 yrs after retirement and works an average of 40 yrs before.
start work at age 20 , save 1.5k every month for 40 yrs , have 720k saved at age 60, retire , spend 720k until death…
+/- zero
majority doesnt save at least 1.5 ( if anything at all ) per month for their retirement
it is all about calculating the sum of all shorter than average lifetimes
thats why unhealthy lifestyles are promoted
if shtf the ultimate resolve will be to ramp up a decent amount of dead consumer/producer units
while hitting the emergency brake early enough to not completely waste all potential
have you ever watched saplings grow from the forest floor after a wildfire ?
amazing :-)
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No.25213
>>25127
>the world has the means to render the global banking cartel's fiefdom obsolete
Not really, that cartel still has resources that dwarf the biggest crypto company out there. Right now crypto is about to get ass-raped by facebook libra, why? because that shit will be accepted everywhere, it will work everywhere, and will be supported by every app. Is the problem of convenience, btc is still too complex for normalfags despite being the most popular crypto out there its barely accepted anywhere outside some places on the internet (even steam wont support it anymore). Meanwhile dipshits think that because libra crypto is going mainstream, they dont get btc and others are going to be the CP/M and Altavista of this era, the has-been that are no longer there, and anyone who bought these coins and didnt cash out on time is gonna be a bagholder. Meanwhile you can't pull this speculative shit with libra because its a stablecoin, so no GRQ schemes.
>>25138
Same here in Argentina, the btc scene is full of avivados (wise guys)
>>25140
>truly we live in depressive times …
Yep, this is the shittiest cyberpunk future ever: no actual gynoids or replicants just shitty realdolls, no cyberdecks just crap phones that track you all day, no flying cars just boring cuckmobiles that self-drive into the side of a truck.
>But as always, the people that got involved in it, corrupted it forever…
Crypto was ripe to abuse, I knew shit was shady when one of the top guys in the btc foundation was some creep who made his first million selling pics of "young models" from russia back in the 90's when you could buy a little girl in that place.
>>24474
>colossally mismanaged the greece crisis:
You can add the Argentine crisis to that list, shit going down here
>In case you did not notice yet, Trump is a sellout and the most Wallstreet president ever. Even more than Obummer.
No shit, only burgerfags fell for the nationalist meme.
>>21946
>The big deals are done OTC
>but you can ride the wave on the way there, right?
Contradiction?
>But now it looks like the USA China trade war is fueling BTC instead
Got more on that?
>>24136
>It was a very good article but I cannot find it ATM, might post later or if any of you have it saved, post is.
Did you find it?
>>24222
That explains why any dipshit with the crappiest automation startup is getting tens of millions in seed money atm
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No.25415
Parking lots for big box stores are filled with new Trucks and SUVs and on the weekends those same fat fucks are out eating at all the shitty restaurants, I work in construction and we have enough work to keep us busy for the rest of the year at the least and thats not including bids/jobs bossman decides to get.
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No.25436
>>25415
Just like 2007
keep in mind stock markets are cyclically about 1 year in advance of real life markets. When the problems in 2007 started, it took until 2010 to reach the bottom of the crisis in real world. I remember car industry was the first ones to get in trouble with Opel Vauxhall getting nearly bankrupted and Angela Merkel introducing this new system where you can go trash your car and get money for it to buy a new one.
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No.25437
>>25436
>Just like 2007
>keep in mind stock markets are cyclically about 1 year in advance of real life markets. When the problems in 2007 started, it took until 2010 to reach the bottom of the crisis in real world. I remember car industry was the first ones to get in trouble with Opel Vauxhall getting nearly bankrupted and Angela Merkel introducing this new system where you can go trash your car and get money for it to buy a new one.
Well at least here in the US what really kicked off the recession were the spike in gas prices, we were paying almost what Canada and Europe normally pay in some places, it got so bad people couldn't afford to drive to work, went downhill from there.
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No.25438
>>25437
>cannot afford to drive to work
now this is the most depressive thing I could imagine
>be norman mcnormie
>have office job in other town
>have to drive there
>all money that would be left for savings you have to spend on gas
>work for gasoline
>so you can drive to work
perpetuum mobile
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No.25440
>>25438
It didn't help them much that everyone was driving those shitty Hummer H2 gas guzzlers
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No.25441
lol, you either go full Hummer H1 or nothing
I never understood the appeal of the H2. Or SUVs in general. If it is an offroad vehicle, it does not have to mimick sedan style
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No.25524
hot take from undercover tranny/pol/ economist :
https://bunkermundo.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/the-coming-banking-crisis/
>Several years ago I began work at a Federal agency on a temporary basis. This agency was one of several responsible for banking regulation. It was here that I happened to overhear a conversation that struck me as incredible. Riding in the back of a black van, I found myself listening to several senior government economists discuss what should have been the unspeakable. The crux of this conversation is as follows: the de-regulation and relaxing of capital requirements for community banks had just been rolled out by the Trump administration and both the economists noted that this would put such small banks in a situation of systemic risk. The changing interest rate environment combined with this relaxing of requirements would mean that large banks would begin to unload their riskiest assets onto community banks, including CLOs (Collateral Loan Obligations, the updated children of the Collateral Debt Obligations that were at the heart of the last financial crisis). In a recession this would mean a massive collapse of community banks across the financial system. “2008 all over again,” one said. “Nothing we can do about it,” said another.
Also If I'm poorfag who can't buy bitcoin or commodities like gold itself, is it viable to buy stocks of bitcoin mining farm / gold miner/ oil refinery?
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No.25525
>>25524
>be Goldman Sucks
>sell worthless paper "investments" to small banks and muppet customers of course
>then actively bet that exactly those papers will get fucked in the next year
>it actually happens, who could have seen this coming like 2008
>make billions off your bet
>small banks are now fucked, the toxic waste is worthless now and in their balance sheet
>their "assets" are less worth than what is noted in the accounting books
>this is called balance sheet is under water
>meanwhile they hold other assets as well
>performing loans
>real estate
>index fund
>ETF funds
>customer liquidity
>so they are only maybe 50% under water
>the toxic crap is worthless but overall they could be solvent still
>but law requires that bank parks the balance sheet at the judge's office
>and that a new external represantative restructures the bank again
<hello local bank. My name is XYZ ABC and I work for Goldman Sucks
<we would like to buy your bank and restructure the firm
<you know, the poor employees would lose their jobs otherwise
<nobody wants that to happen, right?
<we pay you 15 cents on the dollar of your stock value
<I mean, Moody's has rated your bank to junk status and this is a good price for a "junk" tier company, right?
>they do it because no alternative ATM
>GS fires half the employees anyways
>sell out all the assets the bank had
>cut the firm in slices and sell everything for scrap values
>A 100 billion dollar company gets thrown under the bus just so they can make 10 billions in easy money
Gentlemen, this is a lesson for you. This is how the professionals make their millions
Only dilletants deal drugs or robb banks. True professionals open their own banks…
but honestly, when you buy these crappy derivatives, you deserve to get ripped apart
of course the problem is that rating agencies rate those toxic products like they are good when they don't really understand them either…
>Also If I'm poorfag who can't buy bitcoin or commodities like gold itself,
Honestly, I feel like now is maybe a bad time for buying. 12K was rejected, then 11K, now we are hoovering around 10K. Barely. I feel like we hit a dead end and we might soon be on our way down again. But I am always pessimistic though
>is it viable to buy stocks of bitcoin mining farm / gold miner/ oil refinery?
gold stocks are good for making profits. Because when gold goes up for example 10%. Then usually the profit margins of the company that mines gold goes up by 25% or more. This is why gold miner stocks usually perform very well in gold price rallies.
So if you are a gambler then this might be better than gold coins or silver coins.
However, then the price comes tumbling down, they deflate quickly as well.
And for btc. You don't have to buy an entire BTC. You can buy 0.001 if this is what you can afford now.
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No.25641
>>25525
yeah it's all game for (((them))). Saddest part is, no matter how salty NTaleb fans get, I really don't see them losing without bit of violence.
About current situation tho, do you really think we will hit full recession by end of this year? I kind of assumed feds will try their best to delay it during election period. Recent crop yield, brexit, Iran situation looks dire for sure but can we finally see it all undoing itself?
investing sucks. I had no problem making side income from poker game for years but the moment I want to get serious about buying anything all my guts scream danger zone
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No.26359
Professional trader here:
I know the indicator you should be looking for to known when a recession is coming, and because the economy can't handle a recession without a meltdown then we are going to have a financial meltdown. This is not even doomer forecasting its just reality.
The indicator you need to look at is
- 4-week average jobless claims
If it goes above its moving average (244) then in every time that has happen it triggered a recession. And leading indicators are telling us that it will happen in 2020.
Do not buy into the stock market, save all the money you can save. Prepare for a financial crisis and unemployment. & ofcourse buy bitcoin and gold.
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No.26366
>>26359
>professional trader here
trading shitcoins from your mothers basement doesnt count darling
>a recession is cumming
yeah we already know it since last summer
but sadly, you are wrong my dear
we have Jay MUTHAFUCKIN Powell nigga
there will never ever again be a recession because he will just print a bajillion dollaritos and throw it to niggers in harlem to spend on NIKE shoes and oyyphones
t. expert
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No.26533
here it is boys we have our sell-off
your recession is here
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No.26562
So when will the market bottom out? how bad is corona going to be? financially-speaking
>>25440
Fucking this, just get a 4 banger like a corolla or something
>>25441
It was literally a cheapass chevy suv with a bodykit and sold at 3 times the price
>>25524
>buy stocks of bitcoin mining farm
<buying stocks from a "company" registered in some shitty island in the middle of the pacific under fake names by money launderers that will fake a hack and take your cash
Did nobody learn a thing from finex?
Also avoid btc, its tumbling down what with most of the mining and trading being done in china, and china is fucked
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No.27076
We have entered a bear market, that is probably going to last at least 10 years or more, we are never going back to pre-covid times. It's over, no matter how much QE the FED BoJ ECB etc does, its irrelevant.
Get out of your 404ks right now while you have a chance to cut your losses, dont buy the bottom, this is a bear market, sell the rallys.
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No.27083
Hermano
you don't understand this
the Federal reserve IS the market
what they say goes
and they have already made clear a few times already that they will not allow the markets to collapse. This year they have officially started to buy junk bonds of zombie companies. The next logical step is to start directly buying ETFs and index funds. And it will come
We have no free market anymore because there is no price finding mechanism anymore. In a free market, the price of capital is reflected by the interest you pay on loans. In our current times, we have interest rates of near 0 or even negative.
That means that capital (savings) has no value. Nobody needs capital anymore and so nobody needs savings either. Your savings have been deemed worthless by the central bank because they will just print 1 quadrillion dollars and put it into the market at 0% if necessary.
We have no capitalism anymore because companies cannot invest their profits in more productivity because there is nobody to buy more product from them. There is no growth because everyone who is not part of the 1% is fucked forever. So what do companies do instead? Instead of investing their profits in new machines, new products and new services, new employees, they just buy their own stocks to pump the values artificially into the sky.
We have gotten rid of capitalism and what we have left now is only crony corporatism and speculation in financial assets. And the worst thing is we have conditioned the young people that this was the way to go because honest work is useless in our modern times. Only cronyism pays. So our smartest people don't want to become engineers, architects, technicians, laborants, doctors or entrepreneurs. They want to be hedge fund managers, shitcoin speculators, rappers, influencers, models and soccer players.
As long as the federal reserve keeps interst rates below the fair market value, we will just continue with the zombiefication of our economies until there is only government left and companies that are sucking the government tits. Everyone else will be reduced to serf status
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No.27172
It's happening anons:
>The ECB has it
>The SNB has it
>The BOJ has it too
and soon the Americans get it also.
In Germany some of the smaller banks are already charging negative interest rates from their depositors. And those that don't do so officially, they charge you a monthly fee just for the priviledge of having your life savings deposited at their facility. You give them your money to speculate with it on wall street and make profits, and you get rewarded with penalties.
And to all those lunatics who think stocks are gonna crash
this will never happen
FED already said they are willing to do "whatever it takes" to "stabilize" markets
they will keep printing gorillions of dollars and just buy directly stocks and ETF's with it if necessary
Everything has now become too big to fail and they cannot let a single bigger company fail because the banks that have lent them money would start falling one after another like dominoes. Whoever engineered this financial system was a fucking retard
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