No.57142
>no replicants
>no flying cars
>no artificial pets (at least ones that look/act convincing)
Blade Runner was made in 1982 and set in 2019, in this period of roughly 40 years, the main tech that has trickled down into the hands of the working man and thus become widespread (accessible) is really just internet based tools like laptops and cell phones.
Cars are only slightly better in safety and performance, mostly they just have cheap tech glued onto them (back-up cams, dvd players, satellite radio, gps touchscreens)
Kitchen tech might be slightly better if you can afford it, but for the working classes it is still electric stoves and refrigerators, the same old thing.
Home tech might be slightly better in the energystar sense, but most working class domiciles have the same stuff they had 40 years ago with the addition of a smart meter.
Home entertainment systems have improved with HD tv's, 8th-gen consoles, and wifi/smart home automation devices (if you are into that sort of thing)
If you are so inclined you might have something like a zoomba vacuum, but most of the working classes (cyberpunk you are here) still have to use the same old vacuum, lawnmowers, washers/dryers they have been for years.
I found myself reflecting on the development of tech in my lifetime, but specifically, that which had trickled down into the hands of the working class. we are a lot closer to Children of Men than we are to Back to the Future 2, or Blade Runner.
ITT discuss the realistic expectations of tech that actually becomes accesable to the working classes in the next 40 years.
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No.57146
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The next 40 years is too long to make any meaningful predictions.
What i do find interesting is video related, remember when drones started to be commercialized? think about how popular they became and all the applications they are being and will be used on, i think something very similar can happen with these other robots.
I'm also surprised self-driving cars aren't really a thing yet nor smart glasses.
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No.57147
>>57142
China over the last two years has poured massive resources into trying to subsidize replicants in an effort to become the worlds leader in AI. They already have 2 prototypes, one is a demo model that looks almost human, and the other is blatantly a robot used as a talk show host. picrel is an assistant, not a pleasure model
Flying cars are still a way off, but I question if it will be a plan for the next 40 years, since maglev trains or perhaps maglev roads seem like a better replacement for current infrastructure than individual flying cars. The other direction this may go is personal drones/aircraft as a transportation (not cars, but more like helicopters)
Artificial pets could be a thing, but IIRC in the blade runner series artificial pets were around because actual pets for some lore-related reason were hard to get. If I want a dog, cat, or snake I can just buy one.
I talked to my family about their visions of the future as children, and they were convinced it would be like the jetsons, or there would be flying/hover technology but they never would have thought mobile phones would be as big as they are today.
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No.57149
>>57146
what is the point of those exactly? they can walk around, get knocked around a bit, get rained on, but only really offer door opening and carrying a cinder block?
the thing about robots is they have got to become cheaper than human labor. so far, between this and the suicidal security bots, and the bots that tell you a floor needs cleaning (but not actually cleaning it itself) are unaffordable.
self-driving cars also seem extremely dangerous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMdcvLjzVrw
However, i do think there are some bots rolling out that will become widespread. like the amazon warehouse shelf-shifting robots, or maybe delivery drones.
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No.57150
>>57147
yes high speed bullet trains will probably grow along with urban centers. i don't think the controllers will ever let commoners fly. too much freedom, too dangerous, too easy to escape crime scenes. however, skai drones will probably replace helicopters.
i expect augmented reality to become more of a thing in the next decade. either through a cell phone, or maybe some glasses. VR i expect to become more widespread/refined.
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No.57151
>>57149
It's a start dude, drones were just as useless a decade ago, right now they can do little, but i think it's quite promising for the future.
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No.57152
Well it is true. But this is because much of the potential of young minds is lured into the "flckring box".
It used to be "more transistors" which led many into nano-tech. Which sounds very schway but it's just smaller. Which diverted many minds into fields of derivative studies occupying them - in hopes for fame and glory.
The same way today "AI" and "Bitcoins" have been burning through talent, now the "better batteries" and "green energy" or "non plastic" idealism will sidetrack many of the minds of today.
Only to back step (see the tendency in the stores: paper bags like the 20s. Cotton reusable bags as way before that. import of electricity as the windmills that burnt through many engineers aren't living up to the dream…)
Same as "sharing knowledge" became "watching other people complain" or watching advertisement and more misinformation.
As long any strategy for advancement of our world and technology doesn't span multiple political terms or generations, we're bound to be stuck in the mind of a "high potential idealistic 20 year old", that knows everything at that age. Where his or her life only consist of a screen and the things you just enumerated.
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No.57168
>>57149
Think of it this way:
A human life in the western world can cost up to 200k USD to get to age 18, when it needs to be trained to function in a labor environment, which can take additional years and can cost upwards of 10-100k USD, then on top of that, benefits and payments for workers we will simply say 50-150k USD per year.
A robot would take less than 5 years to manufacture, and while the initial cost may be a few million, as more are produced and the process is streamlined, the cost can be reduced to levels that are better than hiring humans, not to mention they do not need sleep, homes, or have families.
The only upkeep cost is maintenance, not healthcare, retirement, taxes, etc.
>>57152
The logistics part that most people fail to even acknowledge is that most of the infrastructure for society has already been put in place, upgrading would mean undoing decades of infrastructure projects to modernize. It is the reason that the USA was one of the last industrialized nations to start issuing chip cards for payment, because POS terminals were almost exclusively mag-strip based.
You can see a similar concept with developing nations being highly developed in mobile phone technologies even when people have basically no idea what the internet is. Tragically, this lead to facebook being a a machine of genocide, because people started sharing hate memes and facebook never deleted them and claims they "just did not understand what the jokes were saying." which caused racial violence to trend.
Countries without a technology will adapt the latest iteration as their first generation technology, while countries with gen 1 technology will spend years trying to get to gen 2-3-4 and so on.
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No.57267
>>57168
>A human life in the western world can cost up to 200k USD to get to age 18, when it needs to be trained to function in a labor environment, which can take additional years and can cost upwards of 10-100k USD
These are not costs paid by companies. A companies might 'train' you for ~2 months before you can work. That's it. The upbringing costs, the education costs etc, are all paid by a third party (usually the family).
>>57142
I think one of the major hiccups is the lack of energy. We need to be able to produce a shittone of energy, and store it in a relatively small amount of space. Room-temperature super conductors would also be a major step forward.
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No.57301
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>>57142
>we are a lot closer to Children of Men
That movie was a british fash wet dream, we're nowhere near there. Funny thing is that there's no "plague" preventing people from having kids, they're just too lazy now
>>57146
Those robots are still crazy expensive and self-driving cars are too buggy to be legal
You have the North smart glasses tho
>>57147
Why they had to make her so ugly? even a plastic chinese bimbo like sexycyborg would be a better model
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No.57303
>>57301
>Those robots are still crazy expensive and self-driving cars are too buggy to be legal
Those are the reasons why the tech is not everywhere right now, not reasons why it won't be in the future.
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No.57305
>expecting technology to be anything other than incremental
Let's face it, the only real change you're going to see in this stuff in even 100 years is some shitty moon colony getting past the speculative stage- and maybe teenagers maintaining fast food robots instead of cooking burgers directly.
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No.57321
>>57142
Am I the only one who thinks even the early 2000s looked more futuristic than today?
Like you had the segway which was mindblowing even if it failed for being expensive as fuck, and modular PDAs like the handspring. Then you had the Dreamcast which was a huge jump over the last gen of consoles and came ready for online with a modem. PCs would double the specs every 4-6 months, lots of crazy stuff coming out in that market. Crazy innovation in gaming, entire new genres being created.
Nowadays all I see is stagnation: phones are all the same, PCs are all the same and increasingly harder to upgrade (specially glued laptops). Consoles are just repackaged PCs all locked down to fuck with no extra features besides improved graphics. Games are all the same bland flavor of open world/battle royale because publishers plain hate risk, even indie games are getting stuck doing the same over and over.
Or maybe its just me and my depression and the early 2000s also sucked but I wasn't depressed back then.
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No.57322
>>57321
"I am tired of earth. These people. I am tired of being caught in the tangle of their lives."
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No.57335
>>57321
>early 2k's were better
Tech stagnation is a thing. The current rate of increase for semiconductor and magnetic platters density have both decreased manyfold. Semiconductors used to gain new processes every 18 months that could double density, now it's closer to 48 months. We're finally at the point where a competing architecture (basic chip design) and process (what chips are made of/how they're made) might survive long enough to actually reach its potential - i.e. produce something denser than the current transistor scale. HP was fapping around with self-assembling molecular transistors back in the 90's, I'm betting that research has been dusted off, along with all of the other wacky stuff.
_Something_ will need to appear, or the semiconductor industry is going to have adjust to using existing processes for longer and dealing with the fact that they'll be competing with their own used products - something that used to not be a problem.
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No.57355
>>57321
couldn't agree more
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No.57358
>>57335
Me again, I'm not that optimistic, I work in IT and the current trend is "hardware dont matter" because everything has gone SaaS or cloud, phones are most of the time used as clients with most of the stuff running on a server, even if the phone could actually run that program.
Same with HDDs, I recall some guy from WD saying all people use their products for is to store pirated stuff and porn, and he had a point. And besides more and more people are going into the cloud, SSDs are getting bigger and cheaper, so I guess magnetic disk tech is a dying breed.
What I see now is merely small improvements, all the low-laying fruit like speed and transistor count is gone, theres no longer exponential jumps, the next gen of a chip only happens to be a little faster, a little more energy efficient.
The molecular thing you mention reminds me of other far-future from that age like printable (like literally with an inkjet printer) screens and portable fuel-cells. Basically they never found a way to solve the issues and it all stayed in the lab. You got tons of schway stuff that never makes it out of the lab, like nuclear powered cars.
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No.57364
>>57335
This is being addressed with MOAR COREZ and the soon-to-arrive 3d stacked design of logic and cache. The stacking will greatly increase IPC. We're hitting a clockspeed wall with silicon, but it won't matter if we can find a way to increase IPC.
For example, a 2.5Ghz Celeron from 2018 will absolutely annihilate a Pentium 4 at 3.5Ghz.
Look for 3D stacking as the next big thing. Moar corez is the hype right now and don't get me wrong, I love additional cores. I think 8c/16t will be the standard for desktop usage soon. Quad cores will be looked at as "entry level" in the next couple years.
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No.57367
>>57364
Soon we will be talking in kc, Mc, and Gc, and the idea of computers only being able to do 4 things at a time will seem as crazy as only having a few kB of memory seems today.
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No.57378
>>57372
The SI suffices kilo-, mega-, and giga- will be used to describe the number of cores instead of quad- etc.
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