ACCELERANTS: IMMIGRATION & AUTOMATION
Illegal Immigration: Flooded the market with cheap, ready labor, eliminating the incentive to train natives. Apprenticeship died because the shortcut was cheaper.
Automation Myth: Clerical and factory jobs vanished. “Learn to code” was the wrong fix. Now AI outperforms junior programmers — the escape hatch is automated too.
THE COMPOUNDING EFFECT: A Demographic Time Bomb
This is an accelerating decay function:
Boomer Generation (Ages 60-78): Holds the majority of remaining tacit knowledge and mastery in skilled trades.
Gen X/Millennials (Ages 28-59): Contain a missing cohort that never entered the skill pipeline due to the above factors.
Gen Z+ (Under 28): Face a landscape where entry points are gone and credentialism is failing.