/biz/ - Business and Finance

Is that robinhood trading app i keep seejng ads shilling for any good or is schwab better?

Fucking tripfags killed halfchan smg

>>3553

So, what stock should you pick up at this point? inb4 doom and gloom There's still money to be made, lads.

How about investing in AMD now? With Nvidia floundering with both their tech and cards and amd about to release 7 nm powerhouses, if the overall market stays relatively stable, I think the company's going to explode in market share and value. Thinking about investing alot.

First ever dip into the UK stock market, bought 300 stocks in a company that's pretty near its 52 week low (low was obvs December)

Immediately next day loses 4/5% and is now JUST above said low point.

Fuck. This was meant to be a sure thing!

>>3925

betting on a single, volatile stock when you don't know how the market works is a good way to gamble your money away.

just park your savings in a all-in-one fund. and if you insist on playing the odds then read up on how the risks work first. or just hit the casino.

Are you guys buying Swedbank stock? One of the largest banks in Swedistan has been exposed for having corruption at the top. It looks like the president will be removed, but the board should be safe. Doubt there'll be any fines or other consequences. The stock has nosedived, from 230 kr to 130. I think the market is massively over-reaction, so I bought some.

>over-reaction

*overreacting

>>3931

>Doubt there'll be any fines or other consequences

why not? we've seen this played out with HSBC and they didn't escape fines.

>>3934

The bank has been accused of embezzlement and money laundering. I don't know how this compares to what you mentioned. Anyway, since the revelations, several experts have only slightly adjusted what they believe to be the appropriate value of the stock. 200 is a popular figure. This implies that the whole thing is overblown. Things only get really serious if the US step in and want to punish it.

>>3942

>I don't know how this compares to what you mentioned

HSBC was also accused of money laundering. if you're not comparing the situation to similar precedent what are you basing your predictions on?

>since the revelations, several experts have only slightly adjusted what they believe to be the appropriate value of the stock. 200 is a popular figure. This implies that the whole thing is overblown.

I don't see how you came to that conclusion from that information.

>>3943

>what are you basing your predictions on?

Like I said, listening to the experts. Also intuitevely, it seems unreasonable for the company to lose half its market cap from this. The stock rallied slightly today, which was nice.

>>3949

>listening to the experts

if you mean the experts behind publicly published stock analysis I'd strongly advice you to take their advice with a large grain of salt. there's a conflict of interest in that their job isn't actually to predict where a stock goes, their job is to attract the readership that pays their salary. and it's not hard to find research papers on how dubious their claims are.

stock picking is not something you should do on intuition. intuition and gut feelings is what gets gamblers into trouble. that kind of price drop should signal a higher risk proportional with the higher reward, not just free money for the taking.

>>3952

Big banks and assorted experts have offered their opinions. People that have an interest in that others find them credible. They've been right about the bank, by the way. The stock is now worth 10 percent more than when I bought it. Even with columnists, how would the attract readers if they're wrong most of the time? With accuracy in predictions comes interest, surely. I'll look up that research you talk about.

>not just free money for the taking.

I never suggested this. Cut the sophistry.

>>3959

>how would the attract readers if they're wrong most of the time?

people who professionally invest don't rely on pundits. the readers they attract aren't the type of people who are going to check their credentials or track record. it's symptomatic of the billion dollar industry of selling sub par financial products to people who don't know better.

also these experts rarely write negatively about stocks in fear of damaging the relationship between the parent companies. so you have a conflict of interest on two fronts with a large helping of confirmation bias.

What's your opinion on the future prospects of the US equity market, Canadian dude? I've been expecting a significant, lasting downturn for years now.

>>3979

"The Stock Market has Predicted 9 of the Past 5 Recessions" comes to mind.

in terms of investing, I pretty much stopped caring about when the next recession is going happen. there's enough research showing that trying to time the market doesn't work. even if it did to some degree I don't think it's worth the stress. I also don't keep my entire portfolio in equity so it's not like I don't have options when one does happen.

I'm not too worried about the usual recession indicators (inverted yield curve, debt levels, etc), the way I see it market crashes, almost by definition, come from somewhere unexpected.

there's also stuff like climate change and automation which are interesting to think about, but I have no idea how they'll play out. they're abstract enough problems that I don't think people can properly grasp how they'll affect the economy.

>>3987

Anyone else had success lately?

>>4117

buying and selling stocks is essentially gambling. as with any other form of gambling your brain has plenty of ways of tricking itself into thinking it's found some pattern or trick when it's all just random numbers. on average you'll probably still make money since the stock market as a whole usually goes up. but you can get the same results by just buying an index fund. the Boglehead wiki is a little out of date but probably still the most level headed guide to investing.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>>4119

Years ago, my statistics professor talked a little bit about game theory and how he makes money at the casino with a plan he created. I wanted to learn more about it but he never responded to my email. Not that I plan on going to the casino, I just wanted to learn more about game theory from him.

I was just watching a video that brought up index funds, so that's something I'll also need to look into some more. Then I haven't learned about bonds yet either but those don't look like something that would really benefit me right now.

>>4123

those kinds of ticks work mostly when you're playing against amateurs who there to have fun rather than optimizing returns. also casinos crack down on that kind of stuff to make the game as random as possible.

on the stock market however, you're at the table with the big shots that have their own bag of tricks and tools that give them a leg up on everybody else. but there's not clause that says the market has to be "fair".

learning game theory or whatever isn't going to give you any kind of edge.

the idea with index funds is to use them to just buy everything on the market and hold it until you retire. the simplest strategy just happens to be the most profitable for retail investors.

bonds are basically loans to the government, they're safe and boring. low returns but not lower than what you're getting in a savings account or cash. people buy them mostly to dampen the volatility they're getting from the stock market.

What is the market so scared of? Is it really the trade talks between Trump and China?

>>4124

I just looked up index funds since that sounds useful but I'm still a bit confused by most of the complications attached to them like ratio and fees, or maybe the websites I read are blowing them out of proportion. Would you consider Fidelity Zero International Index Fund (FZILX) to be a good choice for beginners?

>>4130

I'll go through the wiki soon. It looks like there is a lot to read there. The other links were good introductions.

>>4131

I'm basically a free resource to you as long as I'm answering questions, so keep them coming.

but should probably move it to the finance sticky >>3551 since I shifted the discussion away from stocks.

>>4133

I need to build up some starting funds. I'm just a student right now, so my only money is reimbursement checks from left over Pell Grant money during each term. I was thinking of putting down at most $100 this summer into an index fund(s) but that's going to be too little for my age and see so little growth. Ideally, I should start with over $1000 at least. But the small earnings could be useful as a small start.

My plan was to begin with $200. $100 for investments in Ameritrade, $100 for trades in Robinhood. Like 1 share in AOR, 1 share in FZILX, and then use the rest for swing trading. Then as I learn more and gain experience, I'll adjust future distribution towards whichever is best for me.

Something else I wanted to do was look if I can find a temporary job for the summer that allows enough time for my classes. Some of my classes take up all of my time for homework assignments, which are quite extensive at times, so that's why I don't work and study at the same time. Last term, I barely found the time to cook and clean, all from just one of my classes too. I should have much more free time this term though, which would let me contribute more money into stocks.

>>4133

Forgot to add, do you like this website here? https://www.investopedia.com/

>>4133

I looked around a bit further at index funds and tried to calculate how much AOR would grow with one share. Assuming I did the math right, which I used a 10% tax rate as a rough calculation, I found that one share of AOR at $44.88 would become $1,011,504.84 after 36 years. I read some lists on websites comparing index funds but I didn't understand how they all differ much from one another as many looked very similar.

So I'm thinking of starting with 2 shares of AOR, 1 share of NOBL, and 2 shares of FZILX or some other international index. That's under $200. Then from summer to autumn, I'll use papermoney and/or little money to practice swing trading and day trading.

I actually have a question though. What is the best way to calculate compound dividend projections? I did come across one calculator on a website but it asked for some variables that I did not have. Is share times multiplier, minus cost on that, and then minus tax from that, the right way?

AOR Example:

44.88·1.79 = A

A - (A·0.18) = V

V - (V·0.10) = $

>>4136

replied to most of the stuff here >>4142 since most of it barley had anything to do with stocks

investopedia is fine for simple explanations of investing terminology. don't know about the rest of their stuff, I wouldn't pay for their courses and take anything else they publish with a grain of salt.

I'm expecting the US market to be in red for the next couple of weeks, at least.

>>4174

because of the trade war? the economy will take a blow but I don't think it's the type of damage that will cause a slow dragged out bleed.

>>4198

I'm already not a fan of TA, but I don't think it works the same way for long term trends as with the short term. I can't even think of how it would apply to index funds.

>>4113

finally got my hands on some of these patties, sold right next to a few knock offs. maybe the best veggie burger I've had, but the flavor isn't quite there to be a complete meat replacement. texture was uncannily close though, might be able to trick some people if you pile enough toppings and ketchup on it.

the current ~$8B valuation is still a fraction of the global meat market but feels outsized for the vegetarian market. and with a number of similarly high tech competitors on it's heels it looks like a huge gamble.

You may have read about how J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. has stopped providing financial services to private prisons. http://archive.li/6W3Ev Looked up private prison industry. In the US, the main publicly traded players are CoreCivic Inc (CXW) and Geo Group Inc (GEO). Both are REITs, paying very high dividends, 8.51% and 9.61% respectively. They have been around for decades, so their revenue looks proven and reliable. Normally REITs or this high a dividend are big risks, but in this case (in my judgment) the high return reflects that so many investors have shied away from two relatively secure government contractors on specious ethical grounds.

I like ethical investing—and from a right-wing perspective private prisons are fantastic. They have a vested interest in increasing the prison population (removing crooks from the streets), and by cutting costs make incarceration a more severe punishment.

For disclosure, I haven’t invested in either firm yet, but may within the next year. Even if the Democrats retake the White House, I can’t imagine something like this is what they would use their political capital for, so I believe they will outlast 1/1024th just as they outlasted Obama. And if the investment is still bringing in the money until 2031 or so, it will have paid for itself (in a few years later with capital gains taxes).

>>4259

>relatively secure government contractors

political promises, as flimsy as they are, to shut down the entire industry doesn't sound very secure. at least relative to other REITs.

>I like ethical investing—and from a right-wing perspective private prisons are fantastic

is this sarcasm? for profit prisons should be a pretty obvious perverse incentive and the industry has a number of high profile scandals.

>>4264

I thought it was a really bad and overly pandering advertisement. But it left in enough detail to almost be informative in how hypothetically a prison company would try to garner investments.

>>4267

I would assume these giant companies wouldn't bother to astroturfing a tiny board like this. but I've listened to podcasts that trace seemingly trivial internet quirks to some multi million dollar operation. so who knows.

>>4281

The board is tiny sure, but some marketing company is going to conflate 8chan with 4chan.

>>4200

Sorry for the late reply, bro.

>not a fan of TA

Then how do you know when to buy and sell? Knowing how to identify changes in trends is important, desu. You don't want to buy when the stock's likely to shortly bounce of resistance or when there are signs that a positive trend's about to end.

>not the same for different time periods

Sure, depending on the circumstances, if the sample is from a timespan that's short or long, the analysis can get unreliable. I think resistance levels from a year or two are meaningful when you're dealing with something as massive as the dow jones index chart.

I highly recommend Investopedia for anyone that wants to trade in securities. It's free, accurate and covers everything. Look up topics like the different types of margins, how to do fundamental analysis, fund-types and technical stuff like RSI, SMA, EMA, Stochastic Oscillator, MACD. Whenever you encounter a word you're uncertain about, look it up. It's easy.

>>4340

>Then how do you know when to buy and sell?

I just buy and hold. I don't believe retail investing has the ability to predict how the market is going to move better than random chance. there's a substantial amount of academic research that backs that up. and on the other side there's a billion dollar industry that wants people to believe the opposite so they keep paying trading fees.

>I think resistance levels from a year or two are meaningful when you're dealing with something as massive as the dow jones index chart.

there are so many formations and trends that if you generated random stock data and graphed it then TA would read something out of it.

TA as a methodology is more like those astrology horoscopes you find in the newspaper. it throws out a bunch of guesses and people latch onto anything that happens to be correct and forget the rest.

Not to necro this thread, but as the board is pretty necro might as well. How are my stock bros doing? I am thinking defense and oil are the next big moves and plan to invest in it since there will be more regulation on oil thus costs will go up (have both foreign and domestic) and with war stocks I think Uncle Biden will somehow brew up a terrorist attack (wink wink). Anyone else brewing up anything?