No.9310
Do you believe in a great stagnation? Or a higher education bubble? Or an age of em explosion? Does belief in the singularity affect your retirement plans?
If we're making our ideas pay rent, shouldn't that affect our investment portfolio? Surely we're more rational than the average investor… Right?
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No.9311
Investing is a solved problem. Just find an index fund.
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No.9312
>>9311
spoken like someone who's never invested in anything.
you won't make any money investing unless you can beat the market, which you can't do unless you're smarter than the market. this is NOT a solved problem.
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No.9313
>>9312
Uh, of course you will. You put in money, the entire market rises, everyone makes money. That's the reason people invest in stocks at all.
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No.9314
>>9312
>you won't make any money investing unless you can beat the market
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No.9315
>>9312
ahahahahahaha no. You get money from the suckers you scam into thinking you will beat the market, keeping a fee and losing the rest.
>>9310
If you're the sort of yudbot cultist who believes the first to AGI will eat the world, then buy goog stock.
Because it's completely obvious they'll be the first to AGI.
But even then, why would the AGI keep doing what it's told to? Why would it respect property rights? Why would it pay dividends? If it really is The Bostrokowsky Nightmare Singleton With More Power Than The Rest Of Everything Combined, then it can defect against everyone else at no risk. And at that point your relative wealth status among humans is a vanishing and irrelevant illusion anyway.
as for the Great Stagnation : lolnope http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/21/promising-the-moon/
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No.9316
>>9315
Why do some people have such a hardon for EY that they have to bring him up in every discussion?
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No.9317
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No.9318
"Rationalists" won't put their money where their mouth is because, at some level, they realize that their professed wacky beliefs are not entangled with reality. These "beliefs" could accurately be described as "belief in belief", "tribal shibboleths", or "trying to out-contrarian each other".
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No.9319
>>9318
Nice sneer. What's your true objection?
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No.9320
>>9319
Nice sneer. What's your true objection?
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No.9321
>>9320
Nice sneer. What's your true objection?
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No.9322
>>9321
True sneer. What's your nice objection?
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No.9323
>>9318
It can be surprisingly difficult to go from having read the sequences to picking better stocks. Rationalism is more a collection of techniques and less a body of knowledge. I lack the domain-specific knowledge that Real Traders™ have, so I go for index funds.
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No.9324
>>9323
Reading the Sequences and associated articles/discussion is how I learned about the efficient market hypothesis and the fact you *can't* pick better stocks. I mean, you mention the domain-specific knowledge of Real Traders(tm), but what fraction of them actually have a better-than-chance ability to beat the market?
Anyway, I think this thread is more about the economic implications of our weird cult-of-Yudkowsky beliefs and how our investment portfolios should correspond to that, so you don't need to overcome Real Traders in domain-specific knowledge because the kind of bets we'd want to make on our weird beliefs are not bets they'd want to make with their normie beliefs.
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No.9325
>>9324
No reasonably informed person believes in the strong form of the EMH.
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No.9326
>>9325
Well, of course it's not literally impossible to beat the market, but saying that things won't happen when they're "merely" highly unlikely is another thing you pick up from the sequences; "you won't win the lottery" is technically false, but it has a true meaning with applications to the question of whether buying a lottery ticket is a good idea.
It is in that sense that I mean "you can't pick better stocks".
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No.9327
>>9326
If the sequences say that, they are dumb. People can and do make money beating the market. It take up front capital to put together a team and trading platform but it is very much possible.
Now it is the case that you ordinary schlub retail investor should act as if it were impossible to beat the market, but something like the sequences should have wider application than a rule of thumb for schlubs.
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