/myon/ -13th Touhou Popularity Poll

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File: 707fed2adb73f41⋯.jpg (86.05 KB,544x800,17:25,C2DFBBXVIAEAmLu.jpg orig.jpg)

13th Touhou Popularity Poll Amyonymous 01/15/17 (Sun) 01:05:56 No.503

Have you voted for Youmu yet?

http://toho-vote.info/

Voting closes on Jan. 21 at 11:59 p.m. (JST).

How to vote:

> scroll down and click on the big red button ("投票する")

> now click on the first link ("投票用IDを発行する")

On the next page you'll be asked to fill the form to receive your voting ID.

Type your email address into the first field, optionally your ID from last time into the second field and the captcha into the third field.

> then press the grey button ("送信") to receive your ID

> go back to the previous page (http://toho-vote.info/form/)

The five links under "投票する" are the vote categories. This time there's also a "best partners" category.

> now click on the first category ("人妖部門")

> type your ID into the first field ("投票ID")

> optionally type your name into the second field ("名前")

> click on "未選択" under "投票.1" (your first choice counts twice is mandatory)

> select Youmu ("魂魄妖夢")

> optionally type a comment into the field below ("コメント")

> optionally also select other characters in 投票.2~7

> click on the grey button at the bottom ("送信")

> review your voting form

> scroll down and click on the second grey button ("投票する") to cast your vote or on the first one ("戻って修正する") to go back to the previous page

If you're greeted with "投票を受け付けました", you've successfully cast your vote.

____________________________

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Amyonymous 01/15/17 (Sun) 04:37:39 No.504

File: 6f07be9c8e0b29d⋯.mp4 (454.71 KB,640x360,16:9,no14BOjhr8PMDA4r.mp4)

Please vote for Youmu!

;_;

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Amyonymous 01/15/17 (Sun) 13:27:46 No.505

I'm going to regularly post statistics on how she's currently doing based on accumulated votes shared on twitter. (As I find them.)

Keep in mind that tweets might omit some choices seemingly based on tweet length and not everyone shares their vote on twitter.

So, those results aren't final.

Last time around, the margin of error was actually in favor of Youmu.

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Amyonymous 01/15/17 (Sun) 14:12:54 No.506

File: 49b49076dd8240b⋯.jpg (186.7 KB,1018x671,1018:671,C2LoXwbUkAEePvy.jpg orig.jpg)

File: 963997b1c8cc93b⋯.jpg (125.27 KB,948x923,948:923,C2NIacYUcAAGM_c.jpg orig.jpg)

File: 5dbaa0bc02882e7⋯.jpg (198.81 KB,800x637,800:637,C2NWUSvUkAIAcu9.jpg orig.jpg)

Youmu's current ranking:

10th place / 124 votes

(1/15 11 a.m.~ JST)

7th place / 257 votes

(1/15 6 p.m. JST)

8th place / 327 votes

(1/15 8 p.m. JST)

The third statistic actually sees Youmu placing 2nd with some statistical calculations based on previous first choice rate, previous ranking etc.

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moegoggles !.bYPQVHGpk 01/16/17 (Mon) 00:35:39 No.507

File: 9a2b686d5087b47⋯.jpg (95.87 KB,1000x586,500:293,popularitypoll2016.jpg)

aaand done.

>>505

Does that correlate in any way with the actual results?

Seems easy for it to get badly skewed.

>>506

2nd seems quite optimistic given trends. Still possible though, happened before.

I'll update the graph when results come in. Kept the source for future polls.

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Amyonymous 01/16/17 (Mon) 05:05:11 No.508

File: 8ba8c716693ae10⋯.png (888.96 KB,3000x1500,2:1,ninki12.png)

>>507

>Does that correlate in any way with the actual results?

For the most part, yes. It's basically an exit poll of voters sharing their choices with the #toho_vote13 hashtag.

All votes are ideally confirmed votes. The result gets more accurate over time.

It only really represents the Twitter population though.

>Seems easy for it to get badly skewed.

Twitter is extremely popular with the Japanese Touhou fandom and the Japanese in general and therefore representative for the Japanese fandom as a whole.

But sure, it can get skewed.

Judging from the 3rd statistic Youmu has gotten more votes on twitter than last year. Most other character's haven't.

But I'm not sure whether last year's votes were accumulated within the same time span or are the total votes accumulated from Twitter.

In any case, this is a good sign.

>2nd seems quite optimistic given trends.

You probably misread this one: 7th place is worse than last year.

Given trends, Youmu's popularity is actually growing, whereas most other characters' popularity is either stagnating or in steep decline. Pic related.

Also keep in mind that despite a slight decline in fan art quality, Youmu has made her first notable appearance in both Forbidden Scrollery and Visionary Fairies in Shrine since last year's popularity poll.

In addition, she got a few new MMD models that got popular right away.

I think it's pretty safe to say that she'll rank in the top 10 again.

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Amyonymous 01/18/17 (Wed) 23:59:16 No.510

File: c48989198c494a1⋯.jpg (270.83 KB,932x832,233:208,C2bH34AUcAAnLXg.jpg orig.jpg)

File: 7d8de00461f80ca⋯.jpg (414.44 KB,1078x896,77:64,C2dJ-c5VQAETwNl.jpg orig.jpg)

File: 9848f4b5cf1760b⋯.jpg (114.22 KB,739x859,739:859,C2cwW7yWEAIYEFm.jpg orig.jpg)

File: 8c54a25be456e52⋯.jpg (120.35 KB,752x869,752:869,C2cwYikWIAAVZl1.jpg orig.jpg)

Youmu's current ranking:

>Sorairo's updated statistic

11th place / 419 votes (1/18 11:00~12:30 JST)

Prediction: 8th place

>Kz(ξ)'s updated statistic

6th place / 436 votes (1/18 12:00 JST)

Prediction: 6th place

As you can see, the statistics are very different now, not sure which one is closer to the final result.

But judging from the ~25th increase of Youmu's votes on Twitter, we're probably seeing another 25% rise in participation and new voters are hard to predict. Last year, Reimu profited the most from the increase.

In any case, keep in mind that last year's final statistic predicted Youmu at 8th place, but she ended up being 6th.

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Amyonymous 01/19/17 (Thu) 00:02:35 No.511

>>510

>~25th increase

I meant "~25% increase".

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