/myon/ - myon~

Sorairo (@ShioSyakeYakiNi) and Kz(ξ)‏ (@kzrmk) are doing the exit polls (and possibly predictions) again this year.

Youmu's initial ranking:

>Sorairo

3rd place / 118 points (01/27 12:30~13:30 JST)

>Kz(ξ)‏

3rd place / 141 points (until 01/27 18:00 JST)

The initial Twitter exit polls are really perplexing with Aya suddenly doing really well, but Reimu being even behind Youmu.

For Youmu the situation doesn't change all that much with Marisa and Koishi still being in the lead and I'm not convinced that Reimu will remain on 4th place during the next few days.

However, keep in mind that the initial polls still completely ignore the 1st choice rates of the characters and it's not unlikely that Youmu will now have the highest 1st choice gain of all characters.

Still, Youmu has never done so well in the initial polls before, so there's hope that she will actually achieve 3rd place this time (thread pic related).

Some additional numbers by Kz(ξ):‏

Current ranking:

4th place / 277 points (until 01/31 21:00 JST)

As previously predicted, Reimu passed by Youmu. There's also now a considerable gap between Youmu and the Top 3.

Pic 2 shows the point gains compared to last year until 01/28 and indeed Youmu, although gaining points, still falls behind even further after Marisa and Koishi.

Pic 3 predicts the final outcome based on data until 01/30 and also shows Youmu on 4th place. The dot shows her placing last year, the orange area is the prediction and the line segment depicts the margin of error of 10%.

This means that 4th to 5th place are within the prediction, but 1st to 8th place are still within the margin of error.

So, nothing is set in stone yet, especially with 1st choice votes still not being taken into account and twitter data generally not being entirely representative of the Touhou fandom as a whole.

Even if we take last year's 1st choice rates into consideration, Youmu would still remain on 4th place. It would, however, close the gap between Youmu and the Top 3 and widen the gap between the 4th and 5th place substantially.

With still a few days, possibly weeks to go until the detailed results, I might as well analyze the data we have so far.

Generally speaking, compared to last year Youmu has widened the gap between her and the characters below her as well as closed the gap between her and the characters above her. Not only did she manage to pass by Koishi, she's also gotten really close to Marisa.

Total participation has gone down a lot since last year: It's hasn't been that low since 2009. Because of that Youmu also has lost more than 1100 points compared to last year, however other characters in the Top 5 have lost much more.

Youmu's first choice votes have only diminished by about 150, whereas it has gone down by several hundreds for Koishi and Marisa. So, her first choice rate has actually risen to 31%. Despite the increase, Youmu's rate only ranks at 4th place with Wriggle being the only one with a higher rate within the Top 100.

In absolute numbers it's again the second highest number of first choice votes and has gotten even closer to Reimu's.

I personally think that the numbers reflect an increasing disinterest in the Touhou Popularity Poll, whereas fans passionate about specific characters remain interested. The main reason for this development is most likely the lack of new characters since last time.

Honestly, if Youmu somehow managed to replenish her popularity among the general Touhou fandom, she would have a really good chance to reach first place. A single (non-cameo) appearance might be enough.