/pol/ - Politically Incorrect

>>13570552

Fucking kikes getting sloppy as shit

Tying up loose ends. Who was that guy who survived 3 mass shooting events including in France and lived? Looks like deliberate attempts to cut of the useful idiots something that happened with fake Osama and the entire Seal Team dying in a helicopter crash.

Morons on the left wont question that shit, obviously, but rather follow their ideological programming not letting a tragedy go to waste.

>>13570819

I don't think they were tying up loose ends.

I really believe they were handlers sent to activate their sleeper soldier pat(sy) cruscius.

>>13570552

Last week in Walmart there was a loud alarm that went off in the store for about 5 seconds. Overheard managers "I aint never heard that before!"

>>13570552

What's that? A family from Florida in a Walmart in El Paso Texas during a mass shooting? What are the odds?!

>>13570906

Crisis actor (((parents))) from one (((mass shooting))) just happen to be in a city the same day where a mass shooting happens because they were going to unveil a memorial for THEIR mass shooting halfway across the country?

>>13570552

>unveil a memorial mural that was going to be unveiled

Come on, man.

>>13570938

Why would a 'memorial mural' of a shooting that happened in california go up in el paso texas?

http://archive.is/2CYQD

>>13570953

>http://archive.is/2CYQD

the fuck is this anon?

>>13570969

Suddenly a local website won't archive

>>13570878

Definitely. They would quietly kill some loose end in their own home, suicide them and the public would never even hear about it. If the person is at multiple mass shootings they are most likely a handler or enabler of some sort.

Dude who remembers where he was when the space shuttle challenger blew up, was at the same place when El Paso shooting occurred. coincidence? we think not, life style choice? yes more than likely, dude claims he was at home.

>>13570988

>>13570999

fucking NICE trips

>>13570552

The parents were there for the unveiling of a mural to people that have been killed by guns in Mexico, which makes sense because El Paso is right against the border.

The parents are activists because their child was murdered with a gun. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they could possibly end up in a *general area* doing stuff that anti-gun activist would do, during a shooting, in a city with a population over 600,000.

If you understand anything about statistics, you know this is not a low-probability event. Here's why:

- There are 36 cities with a population of >500k in the US. Since the family was there for a gun violence type of thing, let's say half of those cities would be targets for gun violence activism (so 18 cities).

- Say 5 families are activists that travel around doing activist things.

- Say they spend 1/3 of their time in those 18 cities doing activist things.

- Then the probability that there is an activist family in any given large city at any given time is (5 * 0.333) / 18 = 0.0925 or roughly 9.3%.

- Say there are 15 significant mass shooting in major cities (>500k pop) since parkland (just a rough guess, fairly generous).

- Then the chances one of these 10 shootings having occurred in one of these major cities is 10/18 or 55.56%.

- Combining these two numbers, we can say there is a ~5.16% chance a family was in a specific city when a shooting occurred.

- Then, the chance that an activist family was in a city of over 500k population when a shooting occurred is 1-[(1-0.077)^15], or 69.93%.

Obviously I used some pretty generous estimates to calculate that. But even if you make the numbers a lot less generous the chances are still not even close to zero. Say it was a 25% chance - that's the same chance as flipping a coin twice and coming up with 2 heads. Not a surprising result, honestly.

So, I really just don't understand why this is supposedly proof of some sort of false flag conspiracy…

>>13570652

didnt this gril get whacked?

>>13571828

stop using logic this is a board of schizophrenics

Since when is El Paso considered safe?

>>13571828

How much does CNN pay you to write this gay shit? Thanks for the FactCheck and well-lets-just-assume-a-bunch-of-shit-that-supports-my-point-statistics, Nate Silver!

>>13572048

CNN doesn't pay me. Literally just a guy that just got done with a discrete math class.

If you're going to just intuit what you think is correct and call actual math calculating the probability of that "gay", then you're fucked in the head.

You criticize my assumptions in that calculation. That's fine if you think you have better numbers to assume. Let me know what they are and I'll do the calculation again.

But, if you're going to just criticize the fact that I assumed anything doing that calculation I don't know what you want from me. If the numbers had supported your opinion then you wouldn't be arguing with me, and instead you'd be like "oh shit proved with math". Not sure how to satisfy you if you're just going to be hardcore into your own confirmation bias.

>>102062

Seems that way.

Oops, I meant:

>>13571994

Seems that way.

>>13571828

Clearly you don't understand statistics because your pleb level analysis ignores both spatial and time factors, both of which drive the probability down to near zero.

t. stats fag

>>13572244

"spacial and time factors" lol?

I literally included both of those explicitly.

"There are 36 cities"… < spacial factors

"Say they spend 1/3 of their time"… < time factors

Try not to say shit that's wrong AND stupid. Seems you can't think right. Get that checked out, bud.

>>13572341

No you didn't. You include some bullshit assumptions of factors based on your piss ant undergrad likely single class on statistics. The conditional probabilities alone drive the likelihood of those parents being at that exact spot at that exact time, and we're talking a both significantly low probabilities based on both time and geographic location, to near zero. One must then conclude then that the possibility of it being a false flag increase significantly.

You're just a little piss ant student who learned how to plug and chug shit, but you don't understand any of it. Maybe one day you'll actually understand real world complexity doesn't reduce down to some textbook examples.

>>13570560

Wrong newfag. Kikes are always sloppy but information travels fast and democratically now unlike 500 years ago.

>>13572373

What are you even saying?

First of all, the biggest sign of an idiot is resorting to personal insults when you can't understand or dispute something logically.

Second, AGAIN if you think my assumptions are wrong then give me some new numbers to use.

Third, I am not doing "plug and chug" There is no fucking preset formula for this. If you're going to insult me and say I'm elitist and stupid for my calculation then you tell me how it would be calculated and what these supposedly unknown "time and geographic" variable would be. Otherwise, shut the fuck up if you can't understand the math.

>>13572491

First rule in statistics is to verify your assumptions. Let's take a look at the spatial factor. You assumed these events only happen in high population cities, so your resolution stopped at cities. How many Walmarts in El Paso? How big is a Walmart? Would the resolution of the spatial location be significantly smaller than a "city"? I mean this is obvious right. So that increases the number of potential locations, even if you want to stratify by cities >500k. Even basic napkin math shows your assumptions are WILDLY incorrect. You fail the reasonable test right off the start. This factor alone drives the probability down significantly. Now factor in time, which you reduce down to an assumption of 1/3. Are you fucking retarded? This is seriously the most retarded shit I've ever even read. I'd fucking fail your ass instantly with this level of stupidity. Even a basic time series analysis of mass shootings sets a base assumption SIGNIFICANTLY smaller than 1/3. Now you combine both the time factors and spatial factors, along with those exact parents being at the event, the conditional probabilities all coming together approaches zero.

There are more lightning strikes in the US than there are mass shootings by orders of magnitude. Applying your pleb level analysis of both time and spatial factors should yield millions of people dead from lightning strikes. Is that the case? Negative.

You should feel embarrassed for having such a simplistic perspective of the world. I mean fuck, your shit doesn't even hold up on a napkin.

I don't see anything wrong with that. If anything, we need to join our Aryan brothers that died in Sandy Hook and push for gun control.

accelerationism

>>13572036

EL PASO is fucking 83% beaner

>>13572571

I mean… You can't even think straight on the basic facts of this event. You have no idea what you're talking about. I like how you said you'd "fail my ass". You are clearly not a professor or anyone with a solid understanding of stats.

- You say "how many Walmarts are there in El Paso?" Well, that has nothing to do with the question. You didn't read the article or understand the situation. The family in question was just *in El Paso*. They weren't *in the Walmart* where the shooting happened. So that's not a thing… The question is what are the chances one of those families was *in the city*.

- A time series analysis? Not sure wtf that has to do with this. My assumption is that I picked the number 10 for how many mass shootings have taken place since parkland in major cities. You can dispute that if you like, but to say that has anything to do with time series is insane. Time series *predict future events*. I am not predicting future events. I'm estimating the number of events that have already happened. There is no math involved in that number… just counting how many of those events occured.

>>13572645

I have a masters in stats, I've spent years teaching arrogant little fucks such as yourself. Of course you don't understand the implications of a time series analysis, that's not something you would ever see outside of upper level undergrad stats courses. I'm also going to assume you're a CS major because discrete math is the pleb course they're taught, and you've probably had a baby prob stats course at max. Based on your pleb level analysis, there should be millions of dead people every year due to lightning strikes or any other number of events.

>>13572713

Literally did not address either of the things I said. Don't give a shit about your qualifications if you can't justify your criticism.