After the British and French took control of the disintegrating Ottoman Empire, the British began employing their usual ethno-religious divide and conquer strategy of colonial control by shipping jews to Palestine. This was not all without some difficulty, as the arab-jew tensions proved difficult to manage. However, it would pay off well later. As the British Empire was disintegrating in the aftermath of WW2, the British created Israel as a means to split the Arab world in two and prevent the creation of a pan-Arab state that would control both the Suez Canal and the oil. The Suez Crisis of 1956 and the failed United Arab Republic proved the prescience of this decision. As European empires continued to disintegrate and America fully assumed the formerly European role as world hegemon, America also became the main benefactor of Israel.
However, American interest in the Middle East is declining. The importance of Persian Gulf oil and the Suez Canal is diminishing since new technology such as fracking allows oil to be extracted in many places, including large amounts in North America. The United States has now become a net exporter of oil.
There is even more to it. It used to be that oil, steel, coal and rubber were the key underpinnings of an advanced economy. Steel and coal could be extracted in most countries, so oil was a key import for most countries. Whoever controlled the oil sources could force everyone else to use their currency for international trade. If others use your currency, then you can print money and export the inflation, essentially levying a tax on other countries. These days, oil is only one of several critical imports, others being things like microchips, software and rare earth metals. In fact, it will soon be possible to run an advanced economy without oil, thanks to electric vehicles and high speed trains.
Iran's population is 83 million, Israel's is 9 million. Thus Iran's innate economic potential is much larger. Until now, Iran's economy has been artificially suppressed by US sanctions, however that will not be the case for much longer. As mentioned above, the US is losing interest in expending political capital on interfering in the Middle East. Even if that wasn't the case, China is becoming bolder and bolder in ignoring US sanctions on Iran. Recently, China and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that China would invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years.
One benefit for Israel has been Iran's rivalry with Saudi Arabia, thus forcing Iran to divert attention and resources to that conflict. However, Saudi Arabia's economy is almost completely dependent on oil, and the 2014 oil price crash hit it hard. By comparison, Iran's economy is much more diversified, partly because of historical oil sanctions. Thus the balance of power is shifting in Iran's favor. Saudi Arabian and Iranian officials have recently been holding a series of talks in Iraq to mend relations. If Saudi Arabia and Iran decide to bury the hatchet, that would be even worse news for Israel.
Israel can't just preemptively bomb Iran to destroy their economy, because Hezbollah has 130,000 missiles in Lebanon ready to fire on Israel. With Assad remaining in control of most of Syria, PMF having heavy sway in Iraq, and Russian warships escorting Iranian ships through the Mediterranean, the Iran-Hezbollah supply line remains open. Israel can't use nukes because that would shatter nuclear antiproliferation efforts and so would render it a pariah to the great powers.
What do you think about this theory?
