https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/
>(1) (a) Direct Technosingularity - 25%, if Kurzweil/MIRI/DeepMind are correct, with a probability peak around 2045, and most likely to be implemented via neural networks (Lin & Tegmark, 2016).
>(2) The Age of Em - <1%, since we cannot obtain functional models even of 40 year old microchips from scanning them, to say nothing of biological organisms (Jonas & Kording, 2016)
>(3) (a) Biosingularity to Technosingularity - 50%, since the genomics revolution is just getting started and governments are unlikely to either want to, let alone be successful at, rigorously suppressing it. And if AGI is harder than the optimists say, and will take considerably longer than mid-century to develop, then it's a safe bet that IQ-augmented humans will come to play a critical role in eventually developing it. I would put the probability peak for a technosingularity from a biosingularity at around 2100.
>(3) (b) Direct Biosingularity - 5%, if we decide that proceeding with AGI is too risky, or that consciousness both has cardinal inherent value and is only possible with a biological substrate.
>(4) Eschaton - 10%, of which: (a) Philosophical existential risks - 5%; (b) Malevolent AGI - 1%; (c) Other existential risks, primarily technological ones: 4%.
>(5) The Age of Malthusian Industrialism - 10%, with about even odds on whether we manage to launch the technosingularity the second time round.
