/ratanon/ -Coronavirus thread

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Coronavirus thread Anonymous 03/14/20 (Sat) 21:29:49 No.14519

As you may have heard, the UK plans to deliberately let people be infected to build up herd immunity.

Robin Hanson has been proposing similar strategies for a while: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/simple-sims-on-pandemic-variance.html

Where it gets interesting is that Dominic Cummings seems to be involved with this: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/dominic-cummings-coronavirus-big-tech

And Dominic Cummings is a Yudkowskian rationalist who likes hare-brained schemes: https://dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two-hands-are-a-lot-were-hiring-data-scientists-project-managers-policy-experts-assorted-weirdos/

Is this when rationalism earns a death toll?

____________________________

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Anonymous 03/16/20 (Mon) 13:36:26 No.14520

>>14519

>Is this when rationalism earns a death toll?

What a cheap trollish question. Yudkowskian rationalism already has a death toll. It has hastened at least one suicide.

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Anonymous 03/16/20 (Mon) 16:33:48 No.14521

>>14519

So, you think his model is wrong? Or just risky, or a violation of some moral principle? (Remember he proposes voluntary infection via incentives to volunteers, if this changes the relevance to whichever moral principles you are seething about.)

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Anonymous 03/17/20 (Tue) 09:15:19 No.14522

>>14521

I don't know nearly enough about it to properly judge it (i.e. not by inflammatory imageboard post) but it smells suspiciously galaxy-brain, like most of Robin's proposals.

I'm worried that it perhaps has predictably worse outcomes than other approaches.

If it did come from Robin Hanson via Domic Cummings (it surely didn't, but it's fun to think about) I wouldn't be confident that it works.

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Anonymous 03/17/20 (Tue) 17:35:44 No.14523

>>14522

Is there some history of Hanson's ideas failing? My impression is that he mainly proposes things that will never happen. Maybe all of his galaxy-brain ideas actually would improve the world.

>it perhaps has predictably worse outcomes

They don't seem very predictable if you can't identify what they are.

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Anonymous 03/18/20 (Wed) 09:36:02 No.14527

>>14523

Replacing the justice system by an insurance system is a neat idea with a good chance of massively improving society, though I wouldn't want to roll it out everywhere at once.

A court system for assigning derogatory nicknames to second graders seems a little less promising, though it is interesting.

In general I think his ideas are often better as thought experiments to point out inconsistencies in the way we think about different things than as serious policy proposals.

>They don't seem very predictable if you can't identify what they are.

A greater net cost in QALYs.

They have revised their approach now so I think it was a reasonable concern.

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Anonymous 03/26/20 (Thu) 11:42:05 No.14543

>>14520

>It has hastened at least one suicide.

Sauce?

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