Globohomo - Blessed By Coronachan
By Liane Ferreira, 25 Mar 2020
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> "In sickness and in health." Societies and economies have never been so close and interconnected as today, and coronavirus has made those connections even clearer. Globalization now faces its biggest challenge after the rise of populism, protectionism, accompanied, to some extent, by Brexit. Is globalization 5.0 in question?
> The novel coronavirus is creating international dysfunction at unprecedented levels. If in the beginning, challenges were to be expected worldwide from its impact on the Chinese economy and disruption in the supply chain, but now the global economy and people's livelihoods everywhere are at risk.
> The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that in 2020, the world economy will grow at the slowest pace since 2009, due to the outbreak. The forecast growth of 2.9 percent was revised to 2.4 percent.
> In case of a longer-lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, the OECD prospects for global growth could drop to 1.5 percent in 2020.
> Now, this outlook is closer to becoming a reality. Stock markets are being greatly affected. London, New York, and Tokyo markets have seen sharp drops since the outbreak began. Wall Street even recorded its biggest one day decline since 1987's Black Monday on March 16.
> The travel market is the most hit by travel restrictions, and aviation companies face liquidity problems and even bankruptcy.
> "Severe blow"
> "The pandemic has dealt a severe blow to an already challenged globalization process," Ehud Eiran, member of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, told CGTN. This is evidenced by the decrease in the movement of people and goods; EU closing up, trade restrictions; suspicion towards foreigners.
> "Global supply chains are interrupted and the economic crisis that will follow will decrease global trade. The legacy of the crisis might be an effort by many nations to bring back production home, as the weakness of the global supply chain was just exposed," he explained.
> Even though this should be a time for cooperation, the professor noted that "nation-states and their preferences will determine the level of cooperation." "Turning inward was already part of the discourse in a number of European and Asian countries. I expect these trends to gain further support with this crisis," he said.
> Harold James, professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University, shares the same view. "There are many signs of a backlash against globalization," he said to CGTN.
> Governments become dominant
> The general consensus by the scholars is that national governments will be the dominant actor, as Eiran puts it.
> For the academic, in the short term, the crisis "strengthens governments in most states," because they take more responsibility and penetrate deeper into citizens' lives. "It may also play a crucial role in reviving the economy as seen in the U.S., for example."
> On the other hand, it can challenge the effectiveness of the state in resolving the situation.
> Similarly, Rodrigues added that "governments will be strengthened with national unity discourses that dilute political differences and other divisive issues."
> For James, "the crisis is increasingly becoming a competition of political systems, as evidenced by the slanging match between the U.S. and the Chinese governments," and so far, "China's social controls look as if they are more effective than the rather chaotic and visibly over-burdened health systems of other countries."
> This "will almost certainly lead many other countries to want to emulate China – though probably not in Europe, where there are much greater concerns about privacy."
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