>After consulting a number of film finance sources, Universal’s Tom Cruise movie stands to lose an estimated $95M off of a final estimated global box office tally of $375M. That’s $75M at the domestic B.O., and $300M from overseas.
>This despite the fact that the movie was the biggest global opening ever for Cruise at $169.3M. However, relative to the production investment here, which we are informed is estimated at $345M in total production and global P&A spend (broken out $195M production cost and $150M distribution/ad expenses), those records — and even this weekend’s No. 1 overseas hold of $53M — are not enough to get Mummy over these hurdles.
>Total revenue for Mummy across all streams including theatrical rental, net global TV and home entertainment is estimated at $250M, per Deadline sources. Compare this to Rogue Nation‘s $546.4M which yielded an estimated $110M profit. Subtract $345M costs from $250M total monies, and Mummy loses $95M. Breaking down Mummy‘s revenue, theatrical global rentals are figured at $146M, domestic pay/network TV net at $17M, global home entertainment net at $52M (versus Rogue Nation‘s $84M net), and foreign TV net at $35M (vs. Rogue Nation‘s $74M).
>The above estimates do not include residuals, non-theatrical or any Cruise bonuses. Our non-Universal finance sources tells us that cash break-even occurs at $450M. There is a 40% cash break-even pool for most of the above-the-line talent, “but this film isn’t going to get to cash break-even,” insists our source. There’s another model from another financial source where Mummy clears $400M worldwide and loses significantly less than $60M, but this is factoring that home entertainment makes $85M, as much as Rogue Nation. Many believe $375M is the right endgame for Mummy.
>Uni swears it will march forward with its other Dark Universe titles, despite Mummy‘s loss out of the gate as the franchise’s first title. Bill Condon’s The Bride of Frankenstein is next.
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