This thread is about the coming financial meltdown that is likely to happen throughout 2019.
In the other thread I named some possible reasons already:
>record company earnings/profitability
>lowest unemployment of the last 50 years
>record stock buybacks by companies
>difference between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields on 11 year lows (yield curve)
Those are indicators that were present just before pretty much all of our past recessions as well.
Especially the yield curve was always very helpful in that regard.
Then we also have:
>record debt levels in governments
>record debt levels in corporations
>increasing interest rates
>fed unloading equity from their balance sheet to the open markets (mostly stocks)
So the fed is reverting its easy money policies because they think the economy is doing great again.
In fact everything is very fragile.
In the past 10 years, companies used cheap credit by the federal reserve to invest. However, their investments are not always generating the desired cashflows. Now with interest rates rising again, they are using more and more of their cashflows for servicing their debts. Same goes for governments.
The federal reserve bought up lots of stocks since the last recession. For the past few months they have started offloading this crap again in the open market, putting additional downward pressure onto stocks.
For comparison here is the Dow Jones Stock Market Index during the last big crash.
It plunged from its ATH of 14'000 to around 6'000 during a time period of about 15 months.
I hope you enjoy our ride down and make some money off it.