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Everything that happens today, happens because of what happened in the past. Cause and effect rule the cosmos, via the laws of physics. If we have a vacuum chamber with 100 Oxygen molecules inside, and we know their starting positions and velocities, then we can model what happens inside perfectly. In other words, we can predict the future of these 100 particles. We know where they are going, how fast, and what will happen when they collide with each other or the sides of the chamber. We could model the box infinitely into the future with a powerful enough computer. Their future is pre-ordained by the laws of physics. Perhaps it would be impossible in practice to know enough to actually predict the outcomes. But that is a human limitation. Even if we cannot access it, the information is there that predicts the future of the molecules.
This chamber is a model of the universe. A second after the big bang, the entire timeline of the universe was already decided. A causes B causes C causes Z, eventually. It is unknowable to us, but the information is there. All of human history, your life, your future, were pre-ordained at the beginning of the universe (or perhaps before?). The universe, after all, is simply matter and energy interacting according to straightforward laws of classical physics. According to quantum theory (if you believe in that), many interactions are unpredictable, and down to probabilities. But if there’s a 60% chance of an atom in the sun emitting a photon, then 60% of the atoms will emit photons. Probabilities only make things unpredictable when you look at situations in isolation. The whole universe is still running according to laws. Spacetime is a script written at the moment of creation.
We don’t have free will. We have the illusion of free will based on ignorance. You can’t know all variables, so you have to choose between seemingly viable options. But if you look back on every real choice you made in your life, you will see that actually, you never would have chosen differently. You ‘’could’’ have if you had different information, or a different mindset at the time… but you didn’t. You don’t create a new universe every time you make a choice. Like the vacuum chamber, your life is simply matter and energy interacting. It is thought that every decision you make is already formed in your head up to 10 seconds before you’re conscious of it. Did you just decide to do something random like pick up a pen for no reason, to prove you have free will? Would you have done so if you hadn’t read these paragraphs? Cause and effect rules the universe, and us.
So, living in the universe, we are completely subject to cause and effect, and we still have the illusion of free will because we’re doing our best with the information and tools we have. From here, it is simply a case of pattern recognition. There are patterns of behaviour, actions, that improve survival chances, and actions that decrease your chances. These are not necessarily possible to learn in one lifetime’s experience. It probably took us hundreds if not thousands of generations to figure out patterns of causes and effects like;
If you’re Lustful, Prideful, Envious, Slothful, Gluttonous, Greedy, or Wrathful you might waste energy, get nothing done, create chaos in the tribe, get into fights, and die.
If you work hard, are kind to others, self-restrained, strong but peaceful, and humble you might be liked more by your tribe, get more food and produce better conditions for everyone, and get to breed more.
Morality is simply any pattern of behaviour that increases your people’s health, wealth, prosperity and happiness. Because our universe has laws, these patterns are learnable, repeatable, and true on a meta-level, i.e. not in one situation, but any situation.
Now, how would a wise old caveman pass these lessons of experience down to young children?
“Don’t do this, this or this. The universe will punish you. If you do this, this and this, the universe will reward you.”