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 No.48866[Watch Thread][Show All Posts]

Overcoming W-A-M Effect in Entropically Volatile Scenarios using Causal Funneling

09/1998 [r e d a c t e d]

Background:

Early experiments in temporal mechanics performed at [redacted] in 1994 and 1995 under the auspices of [redacted], a fully technological successor to the Stargate program, demonstrated that even once rid of the potential for human error, precognitive intelligence still has significant operational limitations, particularly regarding those events most vulnerable to entropy, even on time-horizons of an hour or less. The primary driver of this limitation is what we colloquially refer to as the whac-a-mole effect.

[Redacted] guidelines for assessing the potential accuracy of data gleaned from neutrino grabs provide for three basic categories and three corresponding curves. Level 1 entropy events include those governed by minute changes at the molecular, atomic, or sub-atomic levels. These include RNG and most PRNG outputs, (fair) lottery drawings, and quantum events. Level 2 entropy events include events determined by a combination of stable but unknown factors (e.g. Shaquille O’Neal caught a cold the day before the playoffs started) and unpredictable quantum fluctuations (e.g. The same player misses a shot after the ball bounces three times perfectly on the rim before bouncing either in or out of the hoop), and which are unlikely to change dramatically on time-horizons of less than 36 hours. These include the results of (fair) professional sporting events, car accidents, chance encounters, and some equities investments. Level 3 entropy events are those events least prone to change due to any unforeseen human events. These include solar flares, asteroid impacts, earthquakes, and on time-horizons of less than 11 days, floods. Since 1995, [redacted] has never erroneously predicted or failed to predict a level 3 event (meeting [redacted] criteria for casualty count/property damage/U.S. locus), with the exception of certain rain events (see: Danny versus Mitch: A Comparison), as these can be influenced by human activity, which is, in turn, heavily influenced by Level 1 events.

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Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.

 No.48867

Hypothesis:

It may be possible to overcome, on a limited scale, this fundamental limitation of temporal mechanics as we can make some limited inferences from data we know has particularly high potential for entropy. If, for example, we see in neutrino grab 25Oct1998/113A that Alice is going to run into Bob at 1:25pm on 31Oct1998, the we can be assured that this is almost certain not to occur at the exact moment indicated. To date, we have relied heavily on averaging the results of multiple grabs and adding 3 additional neutrino detectors at [redacted].

That said, we can make some common-sense inferences, even at T minus 6d3h. If Alice is scheduled to spend only 2-3 minutes walking a rope line in Little Rock and a cluster of neutrino grabs directly indicates the potential for interaction between 1:25pm and 1:27pm, we can likely forego alerting Alice’s protective detail, even though Bob has ill intentions toward Alice. We know from experience that the overwhelming probability is in favor of Bob’s car getting stuck in traffic, Bob changing his mind, or Bob catching a cold, rather than any specific prediction proving accurate. Thus, we can take a wait-and-see posture and alert Alice’s detail only when nearer time-horizon grabs recommend it (36h standard) and avoid crying wolf; damaging our own credibility in the eyes of our counterparts. This technique could reap benefits, especially when unforeseen solar storms impinge on [redacted’s] operational capability. This can be termed Passive Causal Funneling.

Another technique that can be used to guard against periods of unacceptable neutrino noise is Active Causal Funneling. With Active Causal Funneling, t/x count is deliberately increased or decreased in order to “corral” desired outcomes within a probabilistic range. While many consider these techniques to be outmoded since our surprise receipt of ultralong-horizon intelligence concerning the RAINMAKER event in Sept. 1995 (still three years away as of the time of this writing), our newfound long-range foresight does not obviate the need to be able to effectively intuit, assess, and report those CRITIC events that frequently hinge on the whims of mentally unstable individuals and freak accidents.

As an asides, this author is further perplexed by [redacted] personnel’s cavalier attitude esp. considering [redacted’s] decision to allow RAINMAKER to proceed despite high projected casualties (~4,100) and the treasonous nature of events being planned by [RC], [LS], et. al., regardless of any potential gains. Many of us on the project are skeptical about the true motives of those involved in RAINMAKER. Despite these concerns, we firmly believe that the secrecy of [redacted] will continue to provide the United States with a richly deserved strategic advantage for decades to come.

Disclaimer: this post and the subject matter and contents thereof - text, media, or otherwise - do not necessarily reflect the views of the 8kun administration.



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