Radical leftists do have institutions and government backing them, and the numbers. That is what gives them the ability to really destabilize the rest of the nation, which in all honesty they are already doing rather successfully via destroying domestic energy production, arson attacks against the food supply chain, allowing an open border invasion into the country, weaponizing the bureaucracy to shut down utility production for average consumers, clot shot jabs, poisoning the food and water supply, etc. However, there is blowback which they never seem to consider: doing this will eventually lead to their own demise too.
Rational conservatives (excluding the insane RINO/neo-con types) tend to have a lot more land, tend to live more rural, tend to be well spread out and well distanced from leftist crazies mostly confined to the urban slums. The fact we have so much of our own local jurisdictions and land far from reach makes it a lot harder for radical leftists to fully control, police or takeover. The guns absolutely do give us an advantage to be able to defend ourselves too, no doubt about it. However, we do not typically have large numbers unlike the crazies do. That is our disadvantage. That is why local communities need to be able to band together to keep the crazies out of town come SHTF.
My honest opinion is that civil war will not happen for a couple reasons: the US is deeply vulnerable today and no longer energy independent. Any massive crisis in the US will likely crash the economy, nations will notice immediately and bail from using the US Dollar when it comes to international trade. Many countries may stop trading with us completely due to the risks of such destabilization, designating our country a hostile failed state. Thus most Americans would be too busy dying of starvation and lack of sanitation to be able to fight any long-term internal war. The ones able to defend themselves and families long-term would be the rural preppers and homesteaders with a years worth, or more, of food preservation, who could garden, hunt and fish too, and who have prepared for such dark times ahead.
Another reason, as you stated in the OP, is that primary targets during war typically need to be known and identified in advance. How do you deal with logistics that way when you have millions of gun owners all spread out all over the nation, living from the river sides, valleys, farm land, mountains and anywhere in-between? Most leftist urban dwellers have absolutely NO IDEA how fucking massive America really is.
